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Market situation: sluggish demand, PVC main V2001 contract volatility lower, closing at 6385 yuan / ton, -50 yuan from the previous trading day; Volume 148422 lots, +31242 lots; Position 321890 lots, +13266 lots, basis 295 yuan, +50 yuan; 1-5 spread 105 yuan, -25 yuan
.
News: Longzhong Information reported on October 15: PVC social inventory this week decreased by 4.
52% month-on-month, an increase of 24.
85% year-on-year, as far as East China was concerned, it decreased by 3.
33% month-on-month and increased by 47.
46% year-on-year, and South China decreased by 9.
76% month-on-month and decreased by 27.
45%
year-on-year.
Stocks in East China are 174,000 tons, and South China is 37,000 tons
.
The operating rate of PVC production enterprises in this cycle was 79.
32%, an increase of 0.
11% from last week and a decrease of 0.
31% from last year; Among them, the start of calcium carbide method increased by 0.
06% month-on-month and 2.
86% year-on-year; The ethylene method increased by 0.
30% month-on-month and decreased by 15.
38%
year-on-year.
Taiwan's Formosa Plastics PVC quotation in November was lowered by $30/mt to $870/mt CIF India (Nhava Sheva).
CIF China fell $30/ton at $830/ton China's main port, $840/ton at South China port, FOB Taiwan fell $30/ton at $800/ton
.
In November, the export volume reached 70,000 tons
.
Spot market: The PVC market in Hebei is not
good.
The merchant's intention to ship is high, and the transaction can be profitable
.
The downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the replenishers receive small orders, and the market operation is relatively dull
.
Field reference quotation: 5 types of material excluding tax 6080-6200 yuan / ton delivery, including tax 6510-6630 yuan / ton delivery
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 6130 lots, intraday -100 lots, in the historical high area
.
Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 125683 lots, +5702 lots, short positions are 111444 lots, +817 lots, and the net position is 14239 lots, which is a net increase
.
Summary: The easing of the Sino-US trade dispute has led to a return
to market confidence.
The explosion of Iranian oil tankers has caused investors to worry about the supply of crude oil market, which has formed some support
for the market.
However, the recent trend of international crude oil has weakened, and with the end of the long holiday, environmental protection production restrictions and restrictions policy have been lifted one after another, production enterprises have started to rise steadily, production has increased, PVC spot market supply is sufficient, over time, the planned maintenance of the device is also less and less, in the later stage, only Xinfa and Shenma have maintenance plans, and in the later stage, there are three sets of Dezhou, Zhongtai, Jinniu three sets of equipment planned to be put into production, it is expected that the market will continue the pattern
of oversupply.
In addition, the pressure on calcium carbide transportation has eased, the market supply is sufficient, and the price has weakened
.
The cost support effect on PVC is weakened
.
After the expiration of anti-dumping, whether China's anti-dumping against the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will continue is also a worrying factor
for the market.
And Taiwan lowered its November shipping schedule, these factors are bearish PVC, and it is expected that PVC rebound space will be limited
in the short term.
The possibility of maintaining weak volatility and a downward shift in the center of gravity in the future market is more likely, and operationally, it is recommended that investors can sell short
when they rebound.