PVC main shock lower short-term rebound space is limited

News: In September 2019, China imported a total of 37,724 tons of PVC, a decrease of 10,780 tons, or 22.
22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23,300 tons, a decrease of 38.
79%.

From January to September 2019, China imported a total of 501,500 tons of PVC, down 63,800 tons or 11.
29%
from the same period last year.
In September 2019, PVC exports were 40,600 tons, up 02,700 tons, or 7.
22%, and 03,600 tons, or 7.
91%,
from the same period last year.
From January to September, a total of 414,400 PVC was exported, a decrease of 97,100 tons or 18.
99%
over the same period last year.
From the above data, it can be seen that the import volume in September fell year-on-year, but the export volume increased slightly
.

In September 2019, the total import volume of PVC products in China was 3632.
944 tons, an increase of 797.
08 tons, an increase of 28.
11%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1807.
18 tons, a decrease of 33.
22%.

The export volume was reported to be 380038.
3 tons, a decrease of 29062.
1 tons, or 7.
1%, and an increase of 18633.
7 tons, or 5.
16&%,
year-on-year.
From January to September 2019, China's cumulative imports of PVC products were 33,507.
23 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2,224.
2 tons, a decrease of 6.
22%, and the cumulative export of 3184349 tons, a year-on-year increase of 472,031.
6 tons, an increase of 17.
4%.

In September 2019, the import volume of vinyl chloride was 89,400 tons, and in August, 82,600 tons, of which Japan imported 47,300 tons, Taiwan Province 25,200 tons, and South Korea 16,900 tons
.

Spot market: Hebei market price narrow adjustment, increase range of 20 yuan / ton, 5 type material including tax price in 6460-6510 yuan / ton delivery, Inner Mongolia goods from the price of 6250-6300 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 3819 lots, intraday -600 lots, in the historical high area
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 119432 lots, +1506 lots, short positions are 99321 lots, -1996 lots, and the net position is 20111 lots, net long increases
.

Summary: The start of production enterprises has risen steadily, output has increased, the supply of PVC spot market is sufficient, the pressure of calcium carbide transportation has been eased, the market supply is sufficient, and the price has weakened
.
The weakening of cost support for PVC and Taiwan's downward revision of its November sailing schedule quotation are negative for PVC
.
However, the recovery of crude oil has boosted the confidence of market investors, and the recent accident in Inner Mongolia Sanlian Chemical is expected to lead to production suspension, which is also good for PVC
.
The future market will pay attention to whether China's anti-dumping of the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will continue after the expiration of anti-dumping
.
It is expected that the space for PVC rebound in the short term is limited
.