PVC maintains a volatile trend, short-term recommendations are mainly wait-and-see

As of January 6, the overall operating load of the domestic PVC industry has decreased slightly, the operating load of some enterprises has decreased, and the start of ethylene process has been further reduced
.
The overall starting load of PVC was 76.
35%, down 0.
89 percentage points from the previous month; of which the calcium carbide PVC starting load was 81.
29%, down 0.
08 percentage points from the previous month; the ethylene PVC starting load was 58.
11%, down 3.
87 percentage points
from the previous month.
It is expected that the start of the new cycle will be increased
due to the restart of some plants.

The overall start of PVC downstream products enterprises has decreased slightly, mainly due to the New
Year's Day holiday of some enterprises.
From the perspective of profile products enterprises, southern enterprises are slightly better than northern enterprises, some northern enterprises have product inventory, have plans to take winter break in advance, and enterprises with better orders are mainly exported to products, and domestic orders are weak
.
Among the sample enterprises of Longzhong, the start of profile enterprises is currently 3-5%.

The recovery of real estate and traditional infrastructure industries is slow, product enterprises are not high in the intention of replenishing raw materials, only some large enterprises have orders, and small and medium-sized enterprises still maintain a rigid rhythm
.

In terms of inventory, as of December 31, the sample inventory in East China was 100,300 tons, an increase of 5.
03% from December 24 and a year-on-year decrease of 0.
3%, and the sample inventory in South China was 27,100 tons, a decrease of 11.
44% from December 24 and an increase of 85.
62%
year-on-year.
The total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 127,400 tons, an increase of 1.
03% over December 24 and a year-on-year increase of 10.
59%.

From the current fundamentals, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide has stopped falling, and the price of calcium carbide has approached the cost line to continue to have limited downward space, which supports the cost of PVC and is stable
.