PVC market analysis and forecast in the first half of 2016

In the first half of the year, the main PVC contract showed a volatile upward trend, mainly due to the real estate easing policy and the market supply is not much, production enterprises pre-sale orders opened to March, enterprises raised prices, futures prices followed the rise, the downstream market resumed after the Spring Festival, demand for PVC increased, the external market rose, exports were favorable, and continued to boost futures prices higher
.
From late March to early June, prices corrected
due to poor downstream demand and insufficient equipment maintenance.
In mid-to-late June, driven by the sharp rise in coal and the intervention of mainstream funds, the market inventory was not large, and other favorable factors, the price returned to the rally, and the futures price rose from a low around 4400 to around
5900.

In the second half of the year, the third quarter is the demand off-season, and the equipment maintenance is insufficient, it is difficult to support the price to continue to strengthen sharply, the fourth quarter, gold nine silver ten small peak season, driven by demand, the price is expected to strengthen
again.
At present, the inventory of PVC market in various parts of the country is not high, the price increase sentiment of merchants is high, coupled with the good performance of downstream demand, it is expected that in the second half of the year, PVC spot quotations or maintain a large fluctuation
range.