PVC rebound shows that bulls still have the advantage

News: PVC social inventory continued to maintain a downward trend this week, down 2.
60% from last week and 41.
60% higher than last year, of which East China fell 1.
56% month-on-month and increased 51.
50% year-on-year; South China decreased by 5.
62% month-on-month and increased by 18.
31%
year-on-year.

According to statistics, the output of domestic PVC production enterprises in April 2019 was 1.
58813 million tons, down 1.
88% from the previous month and 4.
78%
from last year.
From January to April, the cumulative output was 6.
39223 million tons, an increase of 2.
34%
over last year.

Spot market: Qilu Chemical City calcium carbide method 5 price is stable, the quotation is 7000 yuan / ton (including tax self-pickup), ethylene Qilu price is stable, S700 quotation is 7090 yuan / ton, S1000 quotation is 7000 yuan / ton
。 The spot quotation of PVC market in Shanghai is not much, the price is more stable, Tianye futures point price V09+100, calcium carbide five-type material mainstream quotation 6900-7020 yuan / ton, Tianye 5 type 7000 yuan / ton, ethylene method Dagu Qilu material 1000 model sent at 7200 yuan / ton for negotiation, East China ethylene method enterprise price in 7250-7400 yuan / ton delivery
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 7664 lots, in the historical high area, intraday -16 lots
.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 162894 lots +1662 lots, short positions are 171603 lots, +4451 lots, and net long positions are -8709 lots, -2789 lots
.

Summary: The intensification of the Sino-US trade war and downstream demand generally suppress the price, but the trend of crude oil is firm, the maintenance of equipment is increasing, and the decline in social inventory has produced some support
for PVC prices.
Technically, PVC1909 oscillated higher, the price returned to above the short-term moving average, although the trading volume shrank significantly, but the position increased
significantly.
The main position shows that the strength of the long position increase is less than the strength of the short position, and the short side has the advantage
.
On the indicator, the MACD decline slowed down, the green bar contracted, and the KDJ indicator was low and golden, indicating that the multi-party force still prevailed
.
Operationally, investors can continue to hold
long positions cautiously.