PVC shrinkage increases position, and futures price volatility rises

News: 1.
In June 2020, the apparent consumption of domestic PVC was 1.
786 million tons, an increase of 0.
76% from the previous month and an increase of 9.
73% over the same period last year; From January to June, the cumulative amount was 10.
147 million tons, an increase of 3.
38%
over last year.
2.
Customs data shows that PVC imports in June 2020 were 172,900 tons, an increase of 87.
9% from the previous month and 174.
9%
from the same period last year.
PVC exports in June 2020 were 28,100 tons, an increase of 7.
7% from the previous month and a decrease of 22.
8%
from the same period last year.

Market quotation: the mainstream price of SG-5 in Changzhou market in East China is 6500 yuan / ton, +0
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: 338 warehouse receipts, +0
.

Main positions: Top 20 long positions 104274, +3082, short positions 111248, +4940
.
Increased
headroom.

Summary: Asian demand is basically stable, and Formosa Plastics raised its quotation in August to support
PVC.
Domestically, the maintenance of domestic production enterprises continued
.
Market supply is expected to decrease, but imports rose sharply in June and domestic supply increased
.
In terms of demand, in June, the apparent demand for PVC continued to rise year-on-year, and was higher than the same period last year, indicating that downstream rigid demand is still there
.
Social inventories continued to fall, indicating that PVC downstream demand recovered well, supporting the price of PVC
.
However, demand in areas affected by flooding in the near future will weaken
.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors trade in the range of 6420-6580
.