In 2019, the PVC market was affected by safety accidents and centralized maintenance, and the supply was tight.
The price fluctuated in the range of 6,300-7,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the high and low price gap further narrowed
Regarding the trend in the latter part of 2020, industry analysts believe that domestic PVC has released new production capacity, the real estate demand in the main areas of terminal consumption has slowed down, and the growth rate of supply is slightly higher than that of demand.
It is expected that the focus of PVC price will shift downward
Yang Xiao, Senior Analyst of Energy and Chemical Industry of Topix Derivatives Research Institute:Yang Xiao, Senior Analyst of Energy and Chemical Industry of Topix Derivatives Research Institute:
Demand growth is around 3%
The downstream demand of PVC is greatly affected by the real estate industry
On the whole, the demand for PVC real estate in 2020 may remain stable
The weakening of PVC demand is likely to be gradual.
Therefore, although the PVC supply and demand structure may gradually become unbalanced, it is estimated that the deterioration rate will be slow and the magnitude may be small
Zhang Zhongying, calcium carbide analyst of Longzhong Information:Zhang Zhongying, calcium carbide analyst of Longzhong Information:
Raw material prices form support
Calcium carbide PVC accounts for about 82% of the total PVC production capacity, so the price of calcium carbide directly affects the production cost of PVC
According to Longzhong information statistics, in 2020, the production capacity of calcium carbide PVC is expected to increase by 1.
73 million tons, and most of the production will be concentrated in the first half of the year, and the consumption of calcium carbide will also increase
In addition, the change of high-speed charging standards in 2020 and the increase in transportation costs in the calcium carbide industry will also bring certain support to the price of PVC
Shi Lei, PVC analyst of Longzhong Information:Shi Lei, PVC analyst of Longzhong Information:
Capacity release increases supply
In the past three years, the production capacity of PVC has been increasing, and the output has also increased year by year
According to Longzhong statistics, the domestic PVC production capacity in 2019 reached 24.
78 million tons, a substantial increase of nearly 7% over the previous year; the cumulative output was about 19.
8379 million tons, an increase of 4.
28% over the previous year, and it is expected to show a significant growth trend in 2020.
According to statistics, 2.
93 million tons of new PVC production capacity will be released in China this year
Among them, the calcium carbide method has a production capacity of 1.
73 million tons, and the ethylene method has a production capacity of 1.
2 million tons
According to the planned production time of each company, it is expected that the domestic supply of PVC will remain tight in the first half of 2020.
In the second half of the year, with the gradual increase in new production capacity, the pressure on domestic PVC supply will increase
In 2020, the total domestic PVC production capacity is expected to reach more than 27.
7 million tons.
Considering the supply pressure, the operating rate may be reduced by 1 percentage point compared with the previous year, and the output is expected to reach 21 million tons
In addition, in 2020, both domestic PVC imports and exports will show an expanding trend
Thanks to the cancellation of anti-dumping duties and the release of new international production capacity, China's PVC imports are expected to reach 900,000 tons in 2020
In 2020, a large amount of new domestic production capacity will be launched, and the international PVC price will maintain a high trend of tight prices.
It is expected that China's PVC export volume will increase significantly to 800,000 tons
Overall, the net import of PVC in 2020 will be about 100,000 tons, which will further increase the pressure of competition in the domestic market
It is worth noting that the "Minamata Treaty on Mercury" stipulates that by 2020, the mercury use per unit of PVC products by the calcium carbide method will drop by 50% compared with 2010.
At present, domestic PVC enterprises have realized the use of low-mercury catalysts through technological transformation.
It is expected that in 2020 The production capacity and output of PVC will not be affected by the convention for the time being
On the whole, the supply of the PVC market in 2020 will show an increasing trend
Zhuochuang Information analyst Yu Jiangzhong:Zhuochuang Information analyst Yu Jiangzhong:
Imports did not increase
Since 2016, China's PVC market has experienced a 4-year boom cycle.
The average annual price has continued to rise, and the domestic price is higher than that of foreign countries.
Therefore, the domestic PVC export advantage has decreased, and the export volume has continued to decline
In 2020, domestic PVC will enter a big year of expansion, and the overall demand is not expected to be good.
The average price of the domestic PVC market will decline, and the export volume is expected to remain low
Under the promotion of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, although enterprises in the northwest region with preferential export policies will increase their exports, there are not many enterprises that can enjoy preferential export policies, and they are all large enterprises with cost advantages and stable downstream.
and traders, so the increase in exports will not be very large
In terms of imports, domestic PVC imports are mainly based on processing with incoming materials and processing with supplied materials
From 2016 to 2019, the domestic PVC import volume fluctuated within a narrow range of 650,000 to 750,000 tons
At the end of October 2019, China's anti-dumping policy on PVC to the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan was cancelled, and it is expected that the general trade import volume will increase in 2020; at the same time, because China's annual PVC imports account for a large proportion of the United States' supply, while in 2020 the United States has 340,000 Tons of new production capacity will be released, so imports will increase to a certain extent
However, due to the relatively high pressure of domestic PVC supply, the impact of the increase in import volume will not be obvious