PVC volatility rises, social inventories continue to fall

News: According to tracking, as of December 15, the inventory of PVC market was 112,000 tons, down 7.
44% from last week, and 83,000 tons in East China was 8.
79% less than last week and 35.
16% lower than the same period last year; South China was 29,000 tons, down 3.
33% from last week and 55.
38%
year-on-year.

Upstream Price: Naphtha CF Japan at $506.
88/mt, +2.
89%; FOB Singapore is trading at $54.
25 a barrel, +3.
61%.

ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 870/mt, +2.
35%; CFR Southeast Asia was trading at $770/mt, +2.
67%.

Domestic calcium carbide prices are stable, with East China reporting 3200 yuan, -0%, Northwest reported 3075 yuan, -0%.

Spot market: CFR Southeast Asia at $870, +0%; CFR China is trading at $870, +0%.

Domestic: North China calcium carbide law reported 6540 yuan / ton, -0%; Ethylene method reported 6900 yuan / ton, +0%; East China calcium carbide method reported 6680 yuan / ton, +0%, ethylene method 7000 yuan, +0%; South China calcium carbide method 6750 yuan, +0%, ethylene method 7200 yuan, -0%.

PVC1905 fluctuated higher, the trading volume increased significantly, and the position volume was basically flat
.
Fundamentally, the gradual decline in demand has suppressed the price to a certain extent, but the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the continuous decline in social inventory has formed a certain support
for the price.

Technically, the MACD median is tangled, the red bar is growing, and the KDJ indicator is hovering at the median level, and there is a possibility of forming a golden cross in the short term, which is slightly conducive to bulls
.
The future market still needs to pay attention to the pressure of the 6400 yuan line, if it can break through, the rebound is expected to continue
.
In terms of operation, investors are advised to hold
long positions with caution.