PVC wide volatility Positions continue to increase significantly

News: According to the statistics of professional institutions: as of August 8, the operating rate of the equipment of 55 sample enterprises in China was 82.
68%, the previous value was 80.
99%, and the profit space of PVC enterprises increased compared with last week, taking enterprises in East China as an example, the cost of calcium carbide was 6286.
5 yuan / ton, and the gross profit was 863.
5 yuan / ton; The cost of ethylene is 6905 yuan / ton, and the gross profit is 294.
2 yuan / ton
.
The inventory of southern society is stable, and Longzhong Information statistics show that the sample inventory data in East China and South China is 190,000 tons, of which the inventory in East China is 140,000 tons and the inventory in South China is 50,000 tons
.
The gross profit of production enterprises increased, the operating rate increased, and the social inventory remained stable, suggesting that PVC demand has improved slightly, which is conducive to supporting prices
.

Upstream price: naphtha CF Japan reported 660.
25 US dollars / ton, up 0.
82%; FOB Singapore was trading at $72.
38 a barrel, up 0.
67%.

ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 1400 / ton, up 20 US dollars; CFR Southeast Asia was trading at $1260 a tonne, up $
5.
Domestic calcium carbide prices were stable, with East China reporting 3370 yuan, flat, and Northwest reporting 3060 yuan, flat
.

Spot market: CFR Southeast Asia was flat at $945; CFR China was flat at $960
.
North China calcium carbide law reported 7210 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan; Ethylene law reported 7500 yuan / ton, flat; East China calcium carbide method reported 7330 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan, ethylene method 7600, flat; South China calcium carbide method 7300 yuan, flat, ethylene method 7650 yuan, flat
.

Summary of views: The PVC1901 contract relies on the 5-day moving average to fluctuate widely, and the position continues to increase
significantly.
Fundamentally, social inventories have fallen, and petrochemical companies' price increases have formed a certain support
for futures prices.
Technically, MACD shows signs of flattening at a high level, and the KDJ indicator continues to diverge
from a high level.
Short-term need to guard against the emergence
of technical adjustments.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors can reduce their holdings at high prices and drop their pockets
.