Raw material prices fell and rubber short-term shock sorting

On the macro front: OPEC+ will cut production by 10 million b/d across the board for two months
.
In terms of spot, the market transaction sentiment is not optimistic, and demand is under pressure
.
Domestic tire sales have increased slowly, foreign new orders have been delayed, rubber consumption has been downgraded, and the operating rate is expected to
decline.
After the price of crude oil rises, positive factors need to be cashed in, otherwise crude oil prices are expected to fall again, which will have a negative impact
on chemicals.

In terms of inventory, as of April 3, bonded inventory in Qingdao fell slightly, the growth rate of general trade inventory narrowed, the amount of inbound inventory decreased, and the outbound volume increased slightly, Qingdao inventory is still in an upward cycle, and the forecast volume in April and May is still more, and the peak is expected to be in mid-to-late May
.
The national social inventory increased by 1.
59% compared with February 28, of which RU delivery warehouse old rubber inventory and Yunnan delivery warehouse inventory fell by a large margin, Qingdao general trade inventory rose more, driving the national inventory to maintain a rising trend, the current non-national reserve inventory can meet the domestic 3.
5 months or so
.

In terms of spot, the market transaction sentiment is not optimistic, and demand is under pressure
.
Domestic tire sales increased, but the delay in new orders from abroad increased, rubber consumption was downgraded, and the operating rate was expected to
decline.
OPEC and oil producers met to cut crude oil production by 10 million tons, significantly lower than market expectations, crude oil prices fell, dragging down rubber trends, is expected to recover.

On the supply side, Thai raw material glue 36.
4 baht/kg (+0.
3), cup glue 26.
5 baht/kg (+0.
65), raw material prices are underestimated, and there is still an expectation
of rebound.

In terms of demand, some tire factories this week due to the reduction of export orders, Shandong Dongying Dawang Thermal Power Plant gas shutoff, individual manufacturers Qingming Festival holiday and other reasons to reduce the operating rate, semi-steel tire manufacturers operating rate of 61.
07%, down 3.
23% month-on-month, down 6.
18% year-on-year, all-steel tire manufacturers operating rate of 64.
49%, down 2.
00% month-on-month, down 7.
62%
year-on-year.

No.
20 rubber production profit of 96 US dollars / ton (-20), the processing plant to reserve high-priced raw materials before the end of February, according to the previous high-priced raw material prices are currently in a loss state, Southeast Asian public health events currently have no impact
on rubber exports.
Due to drought and pests and diseases, the cutting of Yunnan production areas was delayed until the end of April; The Hainan production area has been postponed, and it is expected that the whole island can be cut around mid-May, and there is an expectation
of tightening of RU deliverables.

In terms of trading strategy, the short-term natural rubber rebound RU2101 and RU2009 contract spread widened, higher than last year's average, there is room for the spread to return, and the position is long RU2009 short RU2101 arbitrage
.