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A number of sources said the sharp drop in raw material prices was in line with market expectations
.
On the one hand, the US quota will increase by 16% in 2023, bringing global supply to around 3.
8 million tons; On the other hand, the European recession has severely affected the demand for pollock fillets, and international freight costs have also declined
.
.
On the one hand, the US quota will increase by 16% in 2023, bringing global supply to around 3.
8 million tons; On the other hand, the European recession has severely affected the demand for pollock fillets, and international freight costs have also declined
.
A veteran (Contributor A) said: "In 2023, we will see a big change in the segret market landscape, with a fundamental change
in the relationship between supply and demand due to increased supply, lower freight rates and a weak euro.
”
in the relationship between supply and demand due to increased supply, lower freight rates and a weak euro.
”
Looking at the cyclical changes in pollock prices over the past three years, raw material prices typically fall
around December and January as catches in the Russian Sea of Okhotsk increase.
But this year's situation has amplified, and in addition to increased supply, sales of pollock sticks and other end products have also weakened
.
around December and January as catches in the Russian Sea of Okhotsk increase.
But this year's situation has amplified, and in addition to increased supply, sales of pollock sticks and other end products have also weakened
.
A Russian supplier (source B) said: "Weak demand is objective, many European processing companies have stopped ordering more frozen products from Russia and China, so that the price of primary and secondary freezing is falling
.
" ”
.
" ”
A head of a large European processing company (source C) said: "As sales slow, European processors are also destocking as much as possible, and prices are expected to fall
next year.
" Based on the just-released catch quota data, the first quarter of next year will be very interesting, and buyers are not eager to confirm Season A orders, as many things are still unclear
.
”
next year.
" Based on the just-released catch quota data, the first quarter of next year will be very interesting, and buyers are not eager to confirm Season A orders, as many things are still unclear
.
”
Another Russian seller, Sources D, said: "In recent weeks, I haven't seen any specific price agreements
for QA.
”
for QA.
”
Sources C said that the current price of Russian PBO (one-time frozen fish fillet) has fallen to $4,200-$4,250/mt, but it will definitely change in QA and may even be below $4,000/mt
.
The pressure on H&G and PBO prices in Russia will also affect the US product market, and US prices will also fall, but not more significantly
than in Russia.
.
The pressure on H&G and PBO prices in Russia will also affect the US product market, and US prices will also fall, but not more significantly
than in Russia.
Since the war in Ukraine, the price difference between the United States and Russia PBO has widened to about
$800/ton.
With the UK government imposing a 35% tariff on Russian seafood, UK fillets and frozen fish can only be imported
from China and the US.
$800/ton.
With the UK government imposing a 35% tariff on Russian seafood, UK fillets and frozen fish can only be imported
from China and the US.
Jens Peter Klausen, managing director of J.
P.
Klausen & Co in Denmark, told UCN: "The price in the United States and Russia is so large, it is simply two different markets, which has never happened in history
.
Even if the U.
S.
quota increases next year, U.
S.
companies will focus on fillet and surimi production for markets with higher demand
.
”
P.
Klausen & Co in Denmark, told UCN: "The price in the United States and Russia is so large, it is simply two different markets, which has never happened in history
.
Even if the U.
S.
quota increases next year, U.
S.
companies will focus on fillet and surimi production for markets with higher demand
.
”
Sources B added that US PBO is mainly sold to the US and the UK, and the US sanctions against Russia have not affected its domestic sales, but British importers must buy US products at a high price of $5,000/ton, while Russian PBO is sometimes even less than $4,000/ton
.
.
"But I don't think the spread will continue to widen, because it's
so obvious.
" The U.
S.
PBO will remain at $5,000/ton as the U.
S.
government plans to procure lunches
for schools.
Sources B said
.
so obvious.
" The U.
S.
PBO will remain at $5,000/ton as the U.
S.
government plans to procure lunches
for schools.
Sources B said
.
