echemi logo
Product
  • Product
  • Supplier
  • Inquiry
    Home > Coatings News > Paints and Coatings Market > Real estate supply and demand is not equal or will ease in the fourth quarter.

    Real estate supply and demand is not equal or will ease in the fourth quarter.

    • Last Update: 2020-09-15
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
    Search more information of high quality chemicals, good prices and reliable suppliers, visit www.echemi.com
    China Paint Network
    News:
    the end of August, the policy side of the central bank double down, restrictions on the release of the ban and provident fund two sets of down payment ratio reduction and many other loose. In this year's series of policy positive effects, august off-season trading enthusiasm, housing prices increased significantly month-on-month. And the front-end investment is still depressed, showing "sales hot start cold", "house hot cold" situation. The heat of the sales side is transmitted forward to the development side "unfreezing" for about two quarters, and it is expected that the investment will stabilize in the fourth quarter. At the end of August, there were a number of looser policies, reflecting liquidity support and residents' leverage. First, the central bank has again double-downed. After five interest rate cuts, the benchmark interest rate for loans over five years fell by more than 20%, and the monthly supply of 20- and 30-year personal mortgage loans fell by 10.7% and 12.7%, respectively, compared with the current round of interest rate cuts; The effective reduction of the cost of buying a house directly stimulates the enthusiasm of just needing and improving demand to enter the market. Second, the order to limit the release as scheduled. The effect of the restriction order is less than that of the purchase order, i.e. foreign access to the restricted cities is still subject to local standards; Therefore, in the first-tier cities are still implementing the purchase restrictions at this stage, the impact of the lifting of the purchase restrictions will not be obvious. Third, the proportion of down payment for two sets of provident funds decreased. This policy dividend is conditional on pure provident fund loans, such as portfolio loans, which depend on commercial loans that require a higher down payment ratio. Hot cities even according to the family 1.2 million, down payment 20% of the pure provident fund loan is only enough to buy 1.5 million properties, coupled with Guangzhou, Nanjing and other parts of the city provident fund management center quota has shown a tense situation, down payment reduction is not significant; Back-end sales are hot, off-season trading enthusiasm, house prices increased significantly month-on-month. In August, the average price of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities was 0.19% month-on-month, of which the growth rates of first-, second- and third-tier cities were 2.25%, 0.22% and -0.07%, respectively. Year-on-year average price growth was -3.3%, a 1.3 percentage point narrower decline than the previous month, with first-tier cities up 11.0% year-on-year, driving the larger impact (Chart 2); The rapid rise in house prices is inextricable to the heat of the off-season. From January to August, commercial housing sales area of 696.75 million square meters, up 7.2% YoY, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over January-July, of which residential sales area increased by 8.0%; September is the traditional peak season, developers push volume and second-hand housing listings will be increased, single-month sales will be better than July and August. "Gold nine silver ten" after the release of demand will slow down, the policy side is difficult to introduce strong incentives on the existing basis. Coupled with a rebound in the sales base in the fourth quarter of last year, sales growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter. Front-end investment is depressed, showing a "sales hot start cold", "house hot and cold" situation. From January to August, China's real estate development investment reached 616.3 billion yuan, up 3.5% in nominal terms, down 0.8 percentage points from January-July. The monthly investment growth rate was -1.1%, following another negative growth in December last year, the growth rate fell less than the market expected, the drag on urban fixed asset investment continued unabated. Corresponding to the decline in investment growth is the downturn in construction and the cold weather in the local market. In the first eight months of this year, the land acquisition area and housing start-up area of development enterprises were -32.1% and -16.8%, respectively, with a large negative growth rate. Land transactions are deserted, both housing enterprises to take land strategy conservative factors, but also the official intention to control the land transfer factors, and the new construction area more reflects the housing enterprises' own will, structural high inventory constraints, the power to expand the start of construction is limited. Real estate investment is an important operating target of local stable economy, if the development investment data is still depressed, the policy side of loose will be more than. From the perspective of development enterprises, with the improvement of transaction certainty, sales returns accelerated and capital costs continued to improve the positive capital side, a large part of which will be converted into investment; It is expected that the land and the intention to start construction will rebound, which will help to stabilize the growth rate of development investment, and the heat of the sales side will be transmitted forward to the development end "unfreezing" for about two quarters, and the possibility of investment stabilization in the fourth quarter is greater.
    This article is an English version of an article which is originally in the Chinese language on echemi.com and is provided for information purposes only. This website makes no representation or warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness ownership or reliability of the article or any translations thereof. If you have any concerns or complaints relating to the article, please send an email, providing a detailed description of the concern or complaint, to service@echemi.com. A staff member will contact you within 5 working days. Once verified, infringing content will be removed immediately.

    Contact Us

    The source of this page with content of products and services is from Internet, which doesn't represent ECHEMI's opinion. If you have any queries, please write to service@echemi.com. It will be replied within 5 days.

    Moreover, if you find any instances of plagiarism from the page, please send email to service@echemi.com with relevant evidence.