Reconstruct trillion level pharmaceutical market? Interest pattern of pharmaceutical enterprises

[market analysis of chinapharma.com] since the second half of last year, the adjustment of medical insurance catalog has finally come into being eight years after the completion of the 2009 revision From 2000 to now, after three adjustments, the medical insurance catalogue has begun to solicit opinions to form a dynamic adjustment mechanism, which may cause a dramatic shock to the interest pattern of Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises in the past 17 years? On April 18, the Ministry of human resources and social security issued the notice on Soliciting Opinions and suggestions on the establishment and improvement of the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the drug catalogue of basic medical insurance, work injury insurance and maternity insurance (hereinafter referred to as the notice) The medical insurance drug catalogue will enter the dynamic adjustment stage On February 21, the website of the Ministry of human resources and social security released the new version of the national basic medical insurance, industrial injury insurance and maternity insurance drug catalog (2017 version) (hereinafter referred to as the "new version of the medical insurance catalog") Compared with the 2009 edition, the number of Western medicine and Chinese patent medicine in the new edition of the medical insurance catalogue has increased by 339, reaching 2535 in total, including 1297 western medicine and 1238 traditional Chinese medicine (including 88 ethnic medicine) In the new version of the medical insurance catalogue, the proportion of Chinese patent medicine has reached 49%, which is basically the same as that of Western medicine in quantity Obviously, this is consistent with the policy intention of the state to support the development of traditional Chinese medicine and promote it to a national strategy! In addition, in the new version of the medical insurance catalogue, 45 drugs to be negotiated have been delineated After communicating with drug manufacturers and negotiating intentions, 44 varieties of drugs have been determined, which have been included in the negotiation scope of the national basic medical insurance, work injury insurance and maternity insurance drug catalogue in 2017 Of course, in the face of China's 1.4 billion population base and a trillion level of pharmaceutical market cake, for the majority of pharmaceutical enterprises, every catalog adjustment, including every dynamic adjustment in the future, means that the trillion level of pharmaceutical market interests will face "redistribution" or even "Reconstruction", inevitably bringing "several joys and worries"! To restructure the trillion level medical market? For the current round of medical insurance catalog adjustment, some insiders believe that it can be said that it is to standardize doctors' medication, support innovation and include traditional Chinese medicine in the national strategy Generally speaking, the intention of the national catalogue is obvious In the future, it will support research and development innovation or the first generic medicine, treatment medicine, low-cost medicine, oral medicine, control unreasonable medicine, and strictly restrict the use of traditional Chinese medicine injections It can be said that there will be no self sales team and oral medicine in the future It will be very difficult for traditional Chinese medicine injection pharmaceutical enterprises and agent pharmaceutical enterprises According to the above people, the new version of the medical insurance catalog has a profound impact on many pharmaceutical enterprises, which can be said to have reconstructed the Chinese pharmaceutical market At present, most of the pharmaceutical enterprises in our country are producing generic drugs This catalog adjustment has related restrictions on high price auxiliary drugs, which is undoubtedly a devastating blow to pharmaceutical enterprises Of course, it is good for enterprises with oral medicine sales team and good for innovative drugs But in the current pharmaceutical market, the competition is extremely fierce 90% of pharmaceutical enterprises adopt the model of bottom price agency, and the cost of self built sales team is extremely high at present This leads to the current situation that no powerful pharmaceutical enterprises have no sales force, coupled with the "two vote system", for the entire pharmaceutical industry, this catalogue will reconstruct the Chinese pharmaceutical market It is understood that 49 traditional Chinese medicine injections are selected in the new version of the medical insurance catalogue, but 26 of them are limited to medical institutions at or above the secondary level Zhang Xiao, director of the Medical Insurance Research Institute of Southeast University, told the media that most of the 26 restricted traditional Chinese medicine injections in the new version of the medical insurance catalog are auxiliary drugs, and the medical insurance catalog will be adjusted regularly in the future, and more and more auxiliary drugs in the traditional Chinese Medicine injections will be withdrawn from the medical insurance catalog Mr Shi lichen, the founder of Macquarie, also believes that basic medical institutions are an important market for the sale of traditional Chinese medicine injections The restriction on the use of hospitals above the second level in the new version of medical insurance catalogue has a great impact on the production enterprises of traditional Chinese medicine injections In the future, the market of traditional Chinese medicine injection will further shrink, and the excellent quality and safety of products will become the key to win in the market competition! Only by continuously carrying out the clinical reevaluation and basic research of evidence-based medicine and achieving substantial results, can pharmaceutical enterprises stand firm in the shrinking market The new version of "medical insurance catalogue" has a far-reaching impact on Chinese medicine enterprises, especially on the limited use of traditional Chinese medicine injection preparations If further adjustments are made in the future, the impact on some Chinese medicine enterprises may be broken or even fatal Take Shenwei Pharmaceutical Group, a Hong Kong listed company, as an example Injection products are the main products of the group The sales volume last year was 1.1 billion yuan, down 4.9% year on year, accounting for about 55.7% of the total business volume The sales volume of soft capsule products is 360 million yuan, which is 11.5% less than the annual sales volume, accounting for 18.2% of the turnover The sales of granular products also decreased by 2.2% to RMB 384 million, accounting for about 19.3% of the group's total turnover According to incomplete statistics, at least five of the 26 traditional Chinese medicine injections limited to medical institutions above the first level in the new version of the medical insurance catalogue involve Shenwei pharmaceutical industry, including Shuanghuanglian injection / Shuanghuanglian for injection (freeze dry), Qingkailing injection, Lianbizhi injection, Shenmai injection and Guanxinning Injection; In addition, astragalus injection, which is used for limited diseases, is limited to the cases of "low blood picture index and immune function of radiotherapy and chemotherapy for malignant tumors" According to the annual report of Shenwei pharmaceutical, the turnover in 2016 was 1.993 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), down 2.9% year on year; the gross profit was 1.286 billion yuan, down 5.5% Net profit fell 10.4% year on year to 589 million yuan Lu Yihong, director of investment relations of Shenwei pharmaceutical, said that the decrease in income and profit was mainly due to the reduction in the price of injection products and the strengthening of research and development of new products Therefore, the cost of research and development increased by 6.8% year on year, and the overall sales cost increased by 1.9% These factors reduced the overall gross profit According to the stock price performance of Shenwei pharmaceutical in recent two years, the stock hit HK $15.216 from March 31, 2015, all the way down to HK $7.465 on May 31, 2016, a drop of more than 50% After a slow recovery, it has been hovering below HK $10 for a long time As of May 4, the stock price was HK $9.7, with a P / E ratio of only 12 times Li Bo, an analyst at bocom international, is not optimistic about Shenwei pharmaceutical's future performance expectation and stock price performance The Research Report on March 31 gives "maintain sell rating" In the research report, Li Bo believed that in consideration of the medical insurance limitation of traditional Chinese medicine injection, the bidding price reduction and the influence of the two vote system on the company's sales model, the target price of HK $7.48 was maintained and the sell rating was maintained According to CCB International Research Report, the decline trend of Shenwei pharmaceutical's growth performance in 2017 is difficult to change, for the following reasons: (1) traditional Chinese medicine injection is the company's current product type with a large proportion of revenue, which is mainly sold in clinics, community hospitals and other basic medical institutions In the 2017 new version of the national medical insurance catalogue, the new restrictions on the use of traditional Chinese medicine injection in hospitals above the second level will reduce the bidding price and the amount of use; (2) The sales mode of the company's products is agency sales In order to meet the requirements of the national two vote system, the company will adjust the sales mode in 2017 / 2018, which will also have an adverse impact on income and profit; (3) in the new business field, the company's formula particles are at the initial stage, with a relatively small contribution to income; In terms of Biopharmaceutics, the sales of Pseudomonas aeruginosa injection, the main variety of Beijing vantel, for tumors is still not optimistic, with limited growth space; (4) the company's M & a business and reserve products are not mature, and it is difficult to have predictable profit contribution in the short term Generally speaking, the new version of the medical insurance catalog is good for the listed companies of traditional Chinese medicine In general, the new version of the medical insurance catalog is good for the listed companies of traditional Chinese medicine, such as Renfu medicine, Hengrui medicine, Yifan medicine, Kangyuan medicine, Yibai pharmaceutical, etc Among them, Yifan pharmaceutical ranks first with 12 shortlisted varieties In fact, for pharmaceutical enterprises, the "out" and "in" of the medical insurance catalogue will bring significant changes to their business income According to the past experience, the performance of the shortlisted pharmaceutical companies will be gradually reflected in the next 2-3 years In the adjustment in 2009, the sales of some drugs will double, or even increase 10 times For example, the sales revenue of the drug was 198 million yuan in 2009, but after entering the medical insurance catalog in 2010, the sales revenue in 2015 was about 1.4 billion yuan, and the revenue increased six times In any case, the relevant manufacturers of traditional Chinese medicine have become the beneficiaries of the adjustment of the medical insurance catalogue Many Chinese medicine listed companies, including Yibai pharmaceutical, Kangyuan pharmaceutical and tisri, have been shortlisted In addition to the varieties of traditional Chinese medicine, the varieties of chemical drugs account for another third Most of the beneficiary companies are leading companies in the industry, including Hengrui pharmaceutical, Shiyao group, Sansheng pharmaceutical, Yifan pharmaceutical, etc Wang Hongfeng, chairman of Guizhou Liansheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., which won the bid for three yuan, said that although the current annual sales of the three products are only tens of millions of yuan, after entering the medical insurance catalog, the expected sales volume can exceed 100 million yuan, of which two varieties are expected to see a sales growth rate of 5-10 times "Shenbeiguchang capsule and Shexiang Huoxue Huayu ointment are the traditional Chinese medicine varieties for treating intestinal tract and rheumatoid rheumatism respectively in the medical insurance catalogue at present Shenbeiguchang capsule is a proprietary Chinese medicine approved by the State Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of irritable bowel syndrome Previously, due to the withdrawal of imported drugs, the treatment of traditional Chinese medicine ushered in a better development period We expect that the future sales volume can reach 400-500 million yuan And Shexiang Huoxue Huayu ointment is a kind of medicine for chronic diseases After entering the medical insurance catalog, we will carry out production and operation according to the plan of large varieties " Wang Hongfeng said According to the notice recently released by the Ministry of human resources and social security, the dynamic adjustment of the catalogue inherits the idea of encouraging innovative drugs in the new catalogue But on the other hand, although many drugs are urgently needed in clinic and have good curative effect, their prices are generally high In order to relieve the pressure of medical insurance, their use will be subject to various restrictions, including hospital grade, indications and so on That is to say, in the future, many drugs and innovative drugs will be "crammed" into the medical insurance catalog through dynamic adjustment, which can only be included in the catalog after the national drug price negotiation and big discount! In addition, the Ministry of human resources and social security also solicited relevant opinions from the industry on "how to balance clinical needs, support innovation and medical insurance fund tolerance when dynamically adjusting the medical insurance drug catalog" After the dynamic adjustment of the drug catalogue, the relevant drugs will be included in the medical insurance catalogue, and the national negotiation will be carried out based on the idea of the national drug negotiation that the traditional Chinese medicine enterprises reduce the drug price for the market In the first national negotiations that have been completed, tenofovir dipivoxil, a first-line treatment drug for chronic hepatitis B, and exotica, a non-small cell lung cancer targeted treatment drug