Review and Prospect of American corn export in one year

Introduction: in this just concluded year of American corn market, corn export is very dramatic The USDA's supply and demand report has been an embarrassment for a year, with the annual corn export target being sharply lowered every month But in the end, U.S corn exports exceeded the U.S Department of agriculture's export forecast target in advance As of July 19, the United States had sold 47.856 million tons of corn, equivalent to 1884 million bushels, three percentage points higher than the forecast target of 1.825 billion bushels, or 46.36 million tons, in the USDA supply and demand report last month Over the past four years, U.S corn exports have only reached 99% to 101% of the expected total over the same period However, despite the recent rise in corn exports, one corn exporter said that US corn exports still clearly felt strong competition from South America In 1996, the price of corn in the United States was as high as $5 per bushel! At that time, countries in South America, such as Brazil and Argentina, cut down rainforests to grow corn, which has finally become a major problem for American corn exports To some extent, the world corn export market began to be similar to the pattern of the world wheat market, with many countries competing for a piece of cake In the past, as long as the corn harvest in the United States was not bad, the leading position of the United States in the world corn export market was beyond the reach of other countries Gustafson said that this year's situation shows that the USDA first made a radical mistake and predicted that the target was too high, but then began to correct it In the end, the quantity of corn exports may be much higher than the predicted target He expects shipment volume in 2000 / 01 to be 75 million bushels higher than current USDA forecast! Analysts said that the weekly export inspection report of corn underestimated the actual shipment volume, which was about 30 million bushels compared with the report issued by the US Bureau of statistics a few weeks later, which means that the shipment volume as of July 26 was close to 1.66 billion bushels, higher than the 1.638 billion bushels shown in the weekly export inspection report of this week Gustafson believes us corn exports will be close to 19 million bushels This is due to the competitiveness of American corn in the world market, so it is not surprising that the export inspection volume will increase In the past three weeks, U.S corn exports have averaged almost 43 million bushels In the current market year, American corn has been competing with old rivals such as Argentina, South Africa and Thailand, while new rivals emerge in an endless stream For example, Brazil has become a net exporter of corn for the first time in 20 years due to its abundant corn harvest, and it is ambitious to export more than 3 million tons of corn Although China's accession to the WTO is imminent, it is not in a hurry to continue to export corn in large quantities Recently, Eastern Europe is also expanding its forage export market through the Black Sea port So why can American corn achieve good results? Dale Gustafson, a well-known oilseed analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, a leading brokerage in the US, believes that the competition environment for corn is different from that for soybeans, and it's not the same at all Let's take a look at the situation of the competitors of American corn export in the next year Dale thinks that the possibility of China's net export of corn is very small There are two reasons First, after China's accession to the world trade organization, it will abolish the previous export subsidies in accordance with its previous commitments; second, as we all know, China is affected by a large area of drought this year, and its corn production is expected to be increased The period is reduced Recently, the agricultural counsellor of the U.S Department of agriculture in Beijing lowered China's corn production estimate to 105 million tons this year In addition, Brazil's surplus corn available for export in 2001 / 02 will also decrease as Brazilian farmers start to increase soybean planting again, but Argentine corn production is expected to increase Gustafson believes that, on the whole, the opportunity for corn to strengthen in the next year is greater than that for soybeans Since China may no longer export corn, it is still a question of whether the United States can fill the gap, because the United States does not necessarily export so much corn to these countries The situation in Eastern Europe is not clear, and the output may be higher than the current expectation of the industry However, it is not easy to fill the gap left by China China exported 7 million tons of corn in 2000 / 01 and 10 million tons in 1999 / 2000 For 2001 / 02, the USDA expects corn exports to reach 1975 million bushels, up from 1825 million bushels in the current year In the five years before 2000 / 01, corn exports ranged from 1504 million bushels to 2288 million bushels According to a recent forecast by Darrel good, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, exports of old corn will reach 185 million bushels, 25 million bushels higher than the USDA forecast Looking forward to the next year, although the long-term orders of corn in 2001 / 02 are beginning to be flat, many analysts believe that the strong pace of export in the past market year will continue to the new year, so the export demand will be higher than the previous year Several analysts agree that US corn exports will reach between 2 billion bushels and 2.1 billion bushels in 2001 / 02 (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: