Rising milk prices The spring is coming for dairy farming?

At the beginning of the new year, for domestic dairy farmers on the road to loss, with rising milk prices, does it mean that the spring of dairy farming has arrived?In this regard, domestic aquaculture enterprises and industry experts, the domestic milk prices from July 2018 to date has maintained growth, 2019 milk prices will maintain the trend of growth, but there will be no significant increase.
dairy farmers will have a better time this year than in previous years.
It is worth mentioning that the domestic dairy farming industry in 2016 and 2017 after the downturn, 2018, but also due to the national environmental protection issues have been greatly affected, especially in the southern region, some dairy farming pastures due to environmental protection standards closed, therefore, the domestic dairy farming stock continues to decline.
The number of cows in China continued to decline for five consecutive years from 2014 to 2018, with 7.73 million cows in 2017 and less than 7 million in 2018, according to Li Victory, a professor at China Agricultural University and chief scientist of the National Dairy Industry Technology System.
" China's raw milk prices from August 2018 into the rising channel, environmental pressure, heat stress, consumption season and other superimposed factors, three years of milk price downturn has been reversed.
," Mr Lee said.
In Li's view, the rise in milk prices in autumn 2018 is due to the consumption season superimposed milk shortage of two factors; environmental issues and the low efficiency and losses of the last two years of farming, resulting in a large number of stocks of less than 300 large-scale pastures and community exit;
the first half of 2019 should be much better than the first half of 2018.
2019 should better protect milk sources and give dairy farmers a more reasonable price, otherwise without cattle, China's dairy industry will have a big problem.
," Lee said.
Dairy farming industry ushered in a good note that milk price fluctuations and market supply and demand are directly related, since the second half of 2018 milk prices rise, the domestic dairy farming industry in 2019 will be better than in 2018.
reporter visited to understand that, at present, the domestic milk supply is tight, which can be seen from the dairy enterprises and dairy farmers' cooperative relations of subtle changes.
" In the past, dairy companies and dairy farmers signed contracts are signed quarterly, some are one-year, but from the end of 2018 to the present, dairy enterprises and dairy farmers are signed a one-year contract, early lock milk source, these changes show that the domestic milk supply is insufficient.
", a person in charge of the dairy farming industry told reporters that in 2019 the domestic milk shortage market.
the above-mentioned person in charge, mengniu used 12,000 tons of milk at this time in previous years, now 13,000 tons, indicating that the company's product sales increased.
the same way, in terms of Mengniu and Erie's performance, the volume of milk used is increasing behind the growth.
And according to reporters understand that in 2016, 2017, by the impact of weak dairy sales, domestic dairy farming enterprises are busy spraying powder, therefore, most of the farming enterprises are having a hard time, modern animal husbandry, China's holy grazing these large-scale farming enterprises have entered a loss-making state.
now, with a new round of rising milk prices, does that mean a good day for China's dairy industry?In this regard, the head of the dairy industry said that in the short term is good for farming enterprises, 2019 is a better day than 2018.
because the cost of domestic aquaculture enterprises is increasing in 2018, domestic enterprises are reducing the cost of efficiency, the effect is obvious, in addition, many aquaculture enterprises are breeding combination, but also reduce costs.
the price of milk is now rising, which is good for the cattle farming industry.
but future milk prices won't rise as much as they did during the milk shortage in 2013.
And according to reporters understand that the current average price per kilogram of milk in modern pastoral industry in 3.8 yuan - 3.9 yuan, the company's losses are not from the main industry is not weak, but because the company provisions bad debts caused by the historical legacy.
if the company's share price could recover and rise, life would be better for modern pastoralism.
, Wang Jun (a name) with 500 dairy farmers is also bullish on milk prices in 2019.
" now the price of milk more than 4 yuan / kg, profit can also be.
" In Wang Jun's view, with the change of consumer's consumption concept, the market demand for low-temperature fresh milk is increasing, in addition, the domestic dairy stock is insufficient, in the context of demand is greater than supply, milk prices naturally rise.
, will future milk prices return to the high milk prices of 2013? In response, interviewees said they would not show up.
And in the view of dairy expert Song Liang, the reasons for the rise in raw milk prices: on the one hand, environmental protection issues, the number of dairy cows reduced, on the other hand, the state through the dairy revitalization plan, the support signal for the dairy industry is obvious, farmers optimistic about the future expectations.
, the introduction of high-quality milk projects, but also increased the demand for local raw milk, resulting in tight supply and demand.
" 2019 domestic milk prices will be a moderate upward trend, the overall increase will not be too big.
"Song Liang told reporters.
Dairy enterprises to increase milk source control dairy expert Wang Dingmian told reporters that if China only a few dozen tens of thousands of pastures, will be a nightmare for China's dairy industry, 10,000 pastures to capital cattle as the mainstream, to draw gold as a strategy, if the capital draw away, China's dairy industry will be tsunami-like disaster.
, from the current point of view, the domestic large dairy enterprises in the milk source layout began to work hard.
according to reporters understand that in Mengniu Dairy holding China's Holy Pastoral, the market in recent days has come out favorable to see Mengniu's other small partner Sekoxing and Zhongdai Dairy.
the two pastoral companies, one listed on the new three boards and one on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
data show that in November 2015, Sekoxing was newly listed on the new three boards, with revenue of RMB1.95 billion in 2017, up 33.8% YoY, and net profit of RMB49.79 million, up 117.2% YoY.
, which landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2015, has revenues of 1.1 billion yuan in 2017 and currently has about 40,000 cows in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, mostly on large-scale pastures.
, however, all three companies have issued announcements about whether Erie's shares will be included in the company, and therefore cannot be officially confirmed.
, in the eyes of the industry, although the above information has not been officially confirmed, but the information given is that these large dairy companies are intended to control the milk source.