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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum 2202 closed at 19840, up 80; On the macro front, European weather prices triggered cross-regional arbitrage, some LNG ships turned around to supply Europe, natural gas prices fell by nearly 45% at a high level, and electrolytic aluminum production is expected to slow down; US regulators granted Pfizer emergency use authorization for the new crown oral drug, the economic recovery prospects have accelerated, and risk appetite may strengthen
.
In terms of macro, domestic policies have repeatedly emphasized stability, and in the medium and long term, it may form a bottom
for aluminum prices.
In addition, in the short term, the market is more optimistic about the recent attitude, and the rise in crude oil prices has also driven aluminum prices to a
certain extent.
From a fundamental point of view, the domestic supply side is expected to increase
in December with the resumption of production in Yunnan.
On the cost side, alumina has fallen to near the psychological price of sellers, and further declines in the short term are hindered, but with the fall of coal prices, the cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum still has room
for further downward movement.
On the demand side, consumption has entered the off-season, especially the demand for architectural aluminum profiles and aluminum cables is expected
to weaken.
On Monday, the domestic social treasury fell by 25,000 tons from last Thursday to 839,000 tons, and in the short term, the de-treasury will remain unchanged, but the magnitude may slow down
.
On the whole, the short-term European energy problem has weakened the boost to aluminum prices, and aluminum prices lack upward drive, but they still need to continue to pay attention
.
At present, the pressure of power rationing has eased, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum has started to resume production, and the pressure of electrolytic aluminum production restriction in the Northern Winter Olympics is not large; Alumina prices continued to fall sharply, and costs accelerated to fall, and electrolytic aluminum profits were quickly repaired
.
Natural gas prices in Europe have soared, and several aluminum plants in Europe have begun to reduce production, and more capacity may join the
cut.
East China spot consumption performed strongly, and inventory dematerialization was higher than in the same period
.
Approaching the holiday, the outbound performance is still strong, the accumulation is expected to be significantly delayed, and it is recommended to wait and see
.