Risk aversion is stronger, and aluminum extends last month's decline

On the macro front, the US non-farm payrolls rose by 155,000 in November, far less than expected, or lowered expectations
of the Fed's interest rate hike.
China's CPI and PPI both fell in November, with PPI hitting a new low since November 2016, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy was greater
.
The macro surface is long and short intertwined, Lun aluminum closed up 1%, Shanghai aluminum closed up nearly 0.
5%.

In terms of news, the United States ruled that China's general aluminum alloy plate is anti-dumping
.
In terms of industry, the US ITC sanctioned the dumping of Chinese-made general aluminum alloy plates, and will lock in tariffs for five years, imposing tariffs of 96.
3%-176.
2%.

Norwegian metal producer Norsk Hydro forecasts a 2-3% increase in global primary aluminium demand in 2019, down slightly from 4% in 2018
.
Despite slower-than-expected economic growth, Hydro believes that the global primary aluminum market will continue to run a deficit
in 2019.
Domestically, SMM announced that domestic alumina production in November was 6.
082 million tons, an increase of 6.
7% year-on-year, and the average daily output increased by 4.
1%
month-on-month.
From January to November, alumina production was 64.
3 million tons, up 2.
3%
year-on-year.
In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 2.
955 million tons, an increase of 1.
8% year-on-year, and the average daily output decreased by 1.
8%
month-on-month.

In terms of alumina, prices accelerated their decline
.
As of December 7, Henan first-class alumina quotation was 3070 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
from last week.
Shanxi first-class alumina quotation was 3060 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton
from last week.
Guiyang primary alumina quotation was 3075 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton
from last week.
Australian alumina FOB prices were $400/mt, unchanged
from last week.
As alumina output is increasing, and demand is weakening with the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production, under the pressure of excess supply and demand, the integer mark of 3,000 yuan / ton may be broken
.

In terms of stocks, LME aluminum stocks fell by 875 tons from last week to 1.
0429 million tons
.
At present, aluminum prices have fallen below the cost price, some aluminum companies have taken the initiative to repair and shut down, while the input of new capacity has slowed down, the overall output has declined, and the supply side has improved
slightly.
Off-season factors began to prominent, the performance of the demand side is still weak, the superimposed electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a historical high, and the upward trend of aluminum prices is weak
.
In the later stage, we need to pay attention to macro risks
.