Roche's share has shrunk by more than half! Novartis is down! Future focus of top 10 antitumor drug companies

On November 29, medical network reported that evaluatepharma, a market research institution, released the prediction of the top ten companies in the anti-tumor market in 2024 At first glance, the pharmaceutical companies on the list are roughly the same as those on the 2017 list According to the forecast, Roche, celgene and BMS, which ranked in the top three last year, will maintain their dominant positions in six years However, despite the same ranking, the market share of the three anti-tumor drugs will shrink In 2017, these three enterprises accounted for a total share of 45.8% in the anti-tumor market, of which Roche's market share, which has long been the number one, reached 26.4% According to the prediction of evaluatepharma, the anti-tumor market will be more divided by 2024 The share of the top three companies will be reduced to 26.2%, Roche's market share will be reduced to 11.9%, and the market share gap among the top three or seven companies on the list BMS, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Merck will be less than 1% In the field of anti-tumor, it's not just the "heavyweight" pharmaceutical companies that get a piece of it Last year, the share of pharmaceutical companies other than the top 10 was only 21.5%, while by 2024, it is expected to nearly double (to 39.7%) This is mainly because Gilead, Eli Lilly, tesaro, Clovis and other companies have been approved heavy-duty anti-cancer drugs in recent years, and the competition in the anti-tumor market will be more and more fierce No.1 Roche's anti-cancer drug sales stagnated According to evaluatepharma, although Roche's dominant position in the anti-tumor market will not be shaken by 2024, its sales will not increase significantly Among the top ten anti-tumor markets, sales of Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, MSD, abbvie and astralas increased by double digits One of the main reasons Roche's anti-cancer drug sales are stagnating is that competitors of biological analogues are sharpening their swords to launch generic products for its "blockbuster" rituxan, Herceptin and Avastin They are expected to be available in the next few years, some of which are already on the European market In order to make up for the loss of sales, Roche hopes to place some hopes on the tumor immune product tecentriq, which has been approved for lung cancer and bladder cancer However, the market is highly competitive Analysts say Roche has less research data than mosadong in the most important first-line lung cancer treatment market This doesn't mean tecentriq can't take the lead in other treatment areas The latest test results show that tecentriq may find a place in some important marginal areas In September, Roche said tecentriq could extend the life of patients with extensive small cell lung cancer (es-sclc) by an average of 12.3 months, compared with 10.3 months with chemotherapy alone Analysts say the approved treatment sector is expected to generate up to $1.5 billion in sales In July of this year, tecentriq became the first product of its kind to succeed in the treatment of intractable triple negative breast cancer Roche also hopes to find a new marketing way for the old drugs through the combination of drugs It is testing the combination of tecentriq and avidin for the treatment of lung cancer and liver cancer Last year, Roche was approved by the FDA to use Hessaitin in combination with the new breast cancer drug Perjeta in patients after surgery No.2 new base medicine is looking for Revlimid, the "successor" of new base medicine, which is undoubtedly the anti-tumor trump card product of new base medicine Last year, the sales volume of the medicine reached 8.2 billion US dollars In the first nine months of this year, the sales volume of the medicine reached 7.14 billion US dollars However, it's not easy to come to nardonamide In December, new base said it failed to meet expectations in a non Hodgkin's lymphoma trial, thus failing to meet its target of generating $500 million in new annual sales by 2022 with new indications In addition, the threat of biological analogues is looming In this regard, new base medicine began to look for follow-up products to fill the corresponding gaps Last summer, the FDA approved idhifa, which it developed with its partner Agios, is a drug for the treatment of relapsed / refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients with mutations in the idh2 gene This kind of patients account for 8% - 19% of AML patients, and new base medicine is expected to earn 500 million US dollars from this drug this year Another drug, vidaza, also plays a role in AML therapy, generating $458 million in sales for new based medicines in the first nine months of this year Pomalyst is the company's other "blockbuster" in the field of multiple myeloma treatment, with the "big brother" lenalidomide In the first nine months of this year, palmatine sales reached $1.47 billion In the field of myeloma treatment, new base medicine and car-t drugs are undergoing clinical trials, and these drugs are expected to provide support for pomadolamine eventually Because of the failure in related trials, opdivo has obviously lagged behind keytruda The success of the latter in clinical trials has also put a lot of pressure on BMS Keytruda has obtained two approvals in the lucrative field of first-line treatment Some market analysts say it may still take a year or more for BMS to get out of the woods However, the combination immunotherapy of opdivo and CTLA-4 antibody yevoy has been approved for the primary treatment of melanoma and renal cancer, which has become a new driving force for the sales of these two drugs In addition to the field of tumor immunity, BMS owns the leukemia treatment drug sprycel and the new multiple myeloma product dupliciti Although there are many players in the field of myeloma treatment (darzalex of Johnson & Johnson, ninlaro of Takeda and dupliciti were approved almost at the same time), BMS and partner Alberto are making progress In August this year, the FDA gave the drug "breakthrough therapy" for dupliciti as part of chicken tail therapy, which was used for relapsed and refractory patients who had received at least two previous treatments Compared with some competitors, Johnson & Johnson's anti-cancer drug product line is not large, but its product competitiveness is strong In 2017, Johnson & Johnson had four anticancer drugs that were "blockbusters." Erlada, a new cancer drug approved by Johnson & Johnson this year, is also a "blockbuster" product, analysts said Erlada is a follow-up product of zytiga, an important anti-cancer drug of Johnson & Johnson Despite fierce competition from xtandi, abitrone generated $2.51 billion in sales last year Leerink partners analysts expect erlada's sales to peak at $1.3 billion In the field of multiple myeloma treatment, Johnson & Johnson is also strong, and Takeda's Velcade and Johnson & Johnson occupy a long-term market leading position In 2017, the drug generated $1.11 billion in sales outside of the U.S where Johnson & Johnson is responsible At the same time, its follow-up product, darzalex, also performed well, generating $1.24 billion in sales last year The potential of darzalex will continue to be released In May this year, the FDA approved the combination of bortezomib and prednisone for the treatment of patients who had not been treated before and were not suitable for transplantation, making darzalex the first monoclonal antibody for the primary patients Johnson also shares a large stake in the anti-cancer drug, imbruvica, which generated $1.89 billion in sales last year In August this year, the FDA approved the combination of rituxan and irutinib for the treatment of waldenstrombinemia, a rare blood cancer, increasing its indications to nine However, AstraZeneca's calsequence will also pose a challenge In the field of chronic lymphocytic leukemia treatment, the drug is expected to eventually surpass irutini No.5 Pfizer ibrance is the only one of Pfizer's anti-tumor products There are many new drugs, but in some treatment areas, Pfizer's new products rank lower However, ibrance is not The drug became the first CDK 4 / 6 drug to go on the market in 2015 and was among the "blockbusters" before competitors kisquali and verzenio went on the market However, for Pfizer, it does not have such a market leading advantage in many anti-cancer fields in which it participates Taking PD-1 / PD-L1 as an example, bavencio jointly owned by Pfizer and Merck KGaA ranks fourth in the same products Although it is the first drug approved for the treatment of metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma, it is still far behind in the field of lung cancer treatment, and lung cancer is the largest treatment market for tumor immunity The competition between vizimpro and talzenna, two of Pfizer's latest approved antitumor drugs, is equally fierce Vizimpro's competitors include Tarceva of Roche, gilotrif of Boehringer Ingelheim and tagrisso of astrazenna, which needs to be highlighted in the PARP inhibitors The market already includes lynparza of AstraZeneca and MSD, rubraca of Clovis oncology, and zejula of tesaro Pfizer, however, has other firepower Although xalkori has recently been overtaken by other first-line ALK positive lung cancer drugs in clinical trials, its sales last year reached $594 million Pfizer's prostate cancer drug, enzalutamide, which is owned by both Pfizer and Astaire, has generated $590 million in sales, and the two companies are looking for new uses for the drug At the same time, SUTENT, a renal cancer drug, is still on the market, and the follow-up product, inlyta, may soon play a greater role thanks to the combination of tumor immunotherapy In recent years, AstraZeneca is likely to be the most invested pharmaceutical enterprise in the field of anti-tumor Evaluatepharma predicts that it will become the top ten pharmaceutical enterprise in the anti-tumor market The PD-L1 antibody, imfinzi, is a big push Earlier this year, the drug was approved for the treatment of previously treated stage III lung cancer, a sizeable market However, it remains to be seen how much imfinzi will contribute to AstraZeneca's performance Not long ago, the drug's high-profile mystic trial failed Nevertheless, AstraZeneca has made great achievements in the field of anti-tumor For example, lynparza, its PARP inhibitor, generated $269 million in sales in the first half of this year, and sales will rise as the drug is newly approved for breast cancer treatment In addition, sales of lung cancer targeting drug tagrisso increased 89% year on year in the first half of this year, reaching US $760 million The drug has also been approved for the first-line EGFR gene mutation lung cancer, a new indication, and sales will continue to rise AstraZeneca also has high hopes for calsequence, which was approved last October and is expected to challenge irutini in the area of blood cancer treatment No.7 mosadon keytruda is the main driving force Keytruda of mosadon is gaining momentum in the field of tumor immunity, but according to the prediction of evaluatepharma, the company's ranking in the anti-tumor market by 2024 depends on