Rubber futures are running strongly, and downstream demand still shows no signs of improvement

Although the demand for the domestic downstream car market improved in June and July, the preferential policy of halving the purchase tax of passenger cars introduced by the state at the end of May began to show signs of diminishing marginal effect, and it remains to be seen
whether the future market can continue to exert force under the "golden nine silver ten".

China's automobile production and sales in July reached 2.
455 million units and 2.
42 million units, respectively, up 31.
5% and 29.
7% y/y, but down 1.
8% and 3.
3%
m/m.
From January to July, vehicle production and sales reached 14.
571 million units and 14.
477 million units, respectively, with production up 0.
8% y/y and sales down 2.
0%.

From this point of view, the demand terminal sales of the car market are still weak
.

In the tire industry, in the week of August 19, the operating load of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 56.
8%, down 4.
53 percentage points
from the same period last year.
The operating load of semi-steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 61.
30%, an increase of 4.
01 percentage points
over the same period last year.
Overall, the downstream demand of the rubber market still shows no signs of
improvement.

In the short term, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is still facing the test of "macro risk", "increased supply pressure" and "lack of sustainability in demand improvement", and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2301 contract will still operate
in a weak oscillation pattern.