Rubber has risen sharply, and the upside of the market may be limited

During the National Day holiday, Thailand experienced heavy rainfall and flooding in 15 provinces
.
Due to the landfall of typhoons in Hainan production areas in China, rubber tapping operations in many places have been affected, and the supply of glue in some areas is tight
.
ANRPC expects production to decline by 3.
8% from September to December and consumption to fall by 1.
8% from September to December, which will push up raw material prices
.

According to statistics, before the holiday, the price of full latex in the domestic spot market in Shanghai and the cup rubber in the Thai Hat Yai market were 11,975 yuan / ton and 36.
95 baht / kg, respectively, rising to 13,075 yuan / ton and 38.
5 baht / kg on Friday, up 9.
18% and 4.
19%
respectively.

Secondly, tire production and exports were significantly better than in the first half of the year
.
In the third quarter, the global economy recovered slightly, and tire demand picked up
.
In the third quarter, sales in the European replacement tire market improved compared with the previous two quarters, and shipments of all types of tires except agricultural vehicle tires stopped falling and rebounded
sequentially.
In August, U.
S.
tire imports doubled month-on-month and hit a five-year high
.
On the whole, the market will continue to maintain the existing recovery situation in the fourth quarter, but the extent needs to be determined by the final recovery atmosphere of the market
.

It should be noted that in early October, the production and sales of vehicles by the 11 major companies reached 456,000 units and 344,000 units, respectively, down 3.
8% y/y and 24%
y/y.
It shows that although the market has recovered, its continued strength is limited
.
On the whole, the domestic automotive industry will still be mainly destocked in the fourth quarter, but the time period may be longer
.

In September, China imported a total of 866,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 59%
year-on-year.
From January to September, a total of 5.
373 million tons were imported, up 14.
1%
from the same period last year.
At present, the overall domestic natural rubber inventory is 1.
42 million tons, which is at a high level, which may restrict the rebound space of rubber prices in the later period
.

From the perspective of the technical plate, the center of gravity of the main contract market of natural rubber futures after the holiday continues to move upward, and the trend is strong, close to the high of 14400 yuan / ton at the beginning of this year, and the upper pressure is relatively obvious
.
On the whole, the short-term superposition of many favorable factors to push up rubber prices continues to rise, but considering the technical aspects and downstream follow-up actual demand, the future market upside may be limited
.