Rubber high oscillation disk is mainly based on strong trends

This week, the operating load of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 66.
00%, an increase of 0.
37 percentage points from last week, a decrease of 9.
35 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 2.
06 percentage points
from the same period in 2019.
The starting load of semi-steel tires was 62.
25%, an increase of 1.
07 percentage points from last week, a decrease of 9.
04 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 6.
56 percentage points
from the same period in 2019.

On the demand side, the recent downstream start is stable, mostly maintained at 6-8%, temporarily out of the situation of dragging down the fundamentals in the early stage, but the profit drive is insufficient
.
At present, the finished product inventory of tire downstream dealers and retailers is basically saturated, the tire factory destocking cycle is basically over, or it has entered the stage of seasonal active replenishment before the year, and the active accumulation range is expected to be suppressed
due to the high cost of raw materials.

On the supply side, in the next two weeks, the southern production areas of Thailand will be more disturbed by rain, the price of Hat Yai glue will rise to 60 baht/kg for 10 consecutive days, the price of raw materials is at the high level of nearly 5 years, and the cost side is strongly supported; Near the shutdown, factories producing full latex in Yunnan are striving to grab glue, and the price of rubber in the production area is strong
.

The short-term supply and demand fundamentals have not changed much, the low inventory support of domestic ports still exists, the near supply in southern Thailand is disturbed by continuous rainfall, the shipping schedule delay is still serious, the demand side has no obvious drag, the disk is mainly dominated by strong shocks, and the crude oil side is driven by interference
.