Rubber position increase and contraction, futures price shock closed up

News: 1.
The Thai government plans to provide 850 million US dollars in subsidies to rubber farmers to increase their income
.
2.
According to Longzhong Information, the construction of semi-steel tires started 63.
52% last week, up 0.
49% month-on-month and 9.
52% year-on-year; All steel tires started 65.
89% last week, up 1.
66% month-on-month and 13.
39%
year-on-year.
3.
50 tire and rubber enterprises applied for cancellation
in August.

Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 10700 (+150) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 11100 (+100) yuan / ton; Thai No.
3 tobacco tablets 13350 (+150) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10600 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan State-owned Rubber Processing Plant is 9700 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 39.
49 (-0.
11) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 42.
37 (-0.
18) THB/kg; field glue 39.
6 (+0) baht/kg; Cup gum 32.
5 (+0) baht/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse price increase of 1325 (+0) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1335 (+0) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse price increase of 1335 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 11100 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 421460 tons, -60 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 top 20 long positions 82228, +3973; short positions 122488, +2212
.
Long and short increase together, headroom decreases
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the supply is gradually increasing
.
Vietnam's exports to China have increased significantly, and inventories will still recover
as imports continue to arrive.
At the same time, the September contract enters the delivery month, and the outflow of old rubber will put pressure
on the spot market.
On the demand side, the disaster-stricken enterprises have resumed work one after another, and the start of construction is gradually increasing, which has formed a favorable support for the overall start, but at present, domestic tire consumption is still just demand, and there is no bright spot in demand
.
On the whole, the rubber tapping season is still facing an oversupply situation, and the room for futures price rebound is limited
.
Technically, the RU2001 contract increased its position to the upside, focusing on the pressure above the 12000 mark, and it is recommended to trade in the 11750-12000 range in the short term; The NR2002 contract closed in volatility, and it is recommended to trade
in the 9900-10200 range in the short term.