Rubber rebound blocked The rebound space is expected to be limited

News: 1.
Indonesia's natural rubber exports in July continued to decline
year-on-year.
2.
According to Longzhong Information, the start of semi-steel tires this week was 65.
96%, up 2.
44% month-on-month and 11.
46% year-on-year; All-steel tires started 68.
38%, up 2.
49% month-on-month and 3.
38%
year-on-year.
3.
Cambodia's rubber exports in the first seven months of 2019 increased by 25%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: the quotation of state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market for 17 years is 11050 (+100) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 11450 (+100) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 13750 (+100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10850 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan state-owned rubber processing plant rose to 10,300 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 40.
12 (+0.
21) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 43.
08 (+0.
19) THB/kg; field glue 39.
9 (+0.
2) baht/kg; Cup gum 33.
5 (+0.
5) baht/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1350 (+10) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1350 (+0) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1355 (+5) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 11100 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 422190 tons, +710 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 Top 20 long positions 82725, -1052; short positions 120342, -1979
.
Long and short are reduced together, and headroom is reduced
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the supply is gradually increasing
.
Vietnam's exports to China have increased significantly, and inventories will still recover
as imports continue to arrive.
On the demand side, after September, in order to ensure the "parade blue", the operating rate in Shandong will decline significantly, and there is still no bright spot on the demand side
.
The recent continuous rise in the exchange rate has increased the import cost of natural rubber, which in turn has promoted the strengthening of rubber prices, but the current rubber tapping season is still facing an oversupply situation, and the space for futures price rebound is expected to be limited
.
Technically, the RU2001 contract rebound was blocked and fell back, and the market paid attention to the support around 11700, and the short-term short idea was treated; The NR2002 contract retreated under pressure, and it is recommended to trade
in the 9900-10300 range in the short term.