Rubber shock upward, global supply contraction supports rubber prices

Futures price difference: On January 10, the main RU closed at 12920 yuan / ton (+30), and the main price of NR closed at 9650 yuan / ton (+15).

RU basis -670 yuan/ton (-105), NR basis -83 yuan/ton (-107).

RU non-standard price difference of 2195 yuan / ton (+30), tobacco chip import profit 201 yuan / ton (+73).

Spot market: On January 10, the quotation of full latex was 12250 yuan / ton (-75), the quotation of mixed rubber was 10725 yuan / ton (0), the price of 3L spot was 11575 yuan / ton (-25), the quotation of STR20# was 1415 US dollars / ton (0), and the quotation of benzene butadiene was 10700 yuan / ton (+100).

Thai ingredients: raw film 43.
50 baht/kg (-1.
01), cup glue 39.
25 baht/kg (+0.
45), glue 43.
80 baht/kg (+0.
60), tobacco film 47.
21 baht/kg (+0.
16).

Domestic raw materials: Yunnan glue 10800 yuan / ton (0), Hainan glue 11350 yuan / ton (0).

As of January 6: total stock on the exchange 186744 (+42), exchange warehouse receipt 174970 (+1370).

As of January 5, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 44.
25% (-0.
45%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 51.
52% (-2.
07%)
.

Viewpoint: On the supply side, Vietnam and northeast Thailand have entered a period of production reduction, rainfall in southern Thailand has affected cutting, glue prices have risen, supply pressure in production areas has weakened, and rubber processing plants have the demand for hoarding raw materials, supporting rubber prices; On the demand side, the inventory of finished tire products remained high, the operating rate of all-steel and semi-steel continued to decline month-on-month, and the demand for the Spring Festival showed a short-term slump; In terms of inventory, social inventories continued to accumulate slightly, exchange warehouse receipt registrations continued to increase under high delivery profits, and RU01 contracts approached the last trading day of delivery, and the decrease in positions was small, and there was a trend of receiving goods
.
The global supply contraction supports rubber prices, and rubber shocks are dominant
.