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With the continuous improvement of the resumption rate, demand will gradually improve, superimposed on the basis and emotional repair support, it is expected that rubber prices will continue to rise in a narrow range in the short term, and can be long
at the current point.
For the time being, interest rate cuts may be more flexible for China in the future
.
The epidemic originated in China and was controlled earlier in China, and the resumption of work and production downstream is conducive to economic recovery, which is conducive to the RMB exchange rate
.
From the exchange rate analysis alone, the strengthening of the RMB will be negative for rubber prices
to a certain extent.
Rubber alone from the perspective of exchange rate reduction is negative for rubber prices, and from the experience of emergency interest rate cuts in the past, if a stock market crash occurs, it will affect rubber
.
The timing of the recent Fed interest rate cuts combined with rubber prices to analyze, the outbreak of financial crisis in September 2008, the Fed cut interest rates by 50bp in October, rubber prices since the stock market crash has a cliff-like slide, from 23,000 points in just one month to around 13,000 points, throughout the fourth quarter rubber prices continued to bottom, and finally fell to 8,600 points in mid-December, down 62%.
。 In March 2000, the Internet bubble burst, in January 2001 the Federal Reserve will interest 50bp, the price of Shanghai rubber from the price of around 10,000 points before the outbreak of the Internet bubble, all the way down, in the following more than a year, the lowest fell to around 6500 points, a decline of 35%.
The above sharp fluctuations in rubber prices follow the stock market crash, and the economic downturn brought about by the stock market crash will directly affect the consumer demand of infrastructure and terminals, thereby affecting rubber prices
.
U.
S.
stocks fell sharply last week, affecting the already stable Shanghai rubber price, which has already given an over-sold response
.
Next
, rubber prices still follow their own fundamentals.
After Friday's over-sell, Shanghai rubber prices came to a new low, but this week it came out of the pattern of rebounding after over-selling, and the current point of 11060 is a return to the relative bottom
of the previous narrow range shock box.
At present, the uncertainty of the overseas epidemic is the biggest interference factor, the resumption rate is still low compared with last year, and inventory accumulation is the biggest negative factor
at present.
In the future, under the hedge of macro-favorable policies, with the continuous increase of the resumption rate and the relaxation of traffic control, demand will gradually improve
.
The current futures price is still supported by the basis, and there is also a sentimental repair in the market this week, and it is expected that the narrow range of volatility will continue in the short term, and you can take long
positions at the current point.
