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    Home > Chemicals Industry > Petrochemical News > Russian oil price limit is difficult to resolve, international oil prices fell below $80 / barrel

    Russian oil price limit is difficult to resolve, international oil prices fell below $80 / barrel

    • Last Update: 2023-01-01
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Last week (November 21-25), the global commodity market "fell"
    .
    In terms of energy, WTI crude oil prices fell below the important threshold of $80 per barrel, and under the influence of many uncertainties on the supply side, institutions have divergent judgments on the future market of oil prices; In non-ferrous metals, LME copper prices fell about 7% from this month's high, and institutions expect copper price pressure to gradually increase as fundamentals begin to show signs of weakening; In terms of agricultural products, the main domestic pig contract prices also fell
    sharply.

    International oil prices have been hit hard

    As of Friday's close, WTI crude oil prices fell below $80 per barrel, a cumulative decline of 4.
    62% during the week; Brent crude futures fell below $85 per barrel, a cumulative decline of 4.
    44%
    during the week.

    On the news, the international crude oil market, which was already in a fragile balance between supply and demand, was hit
    hard.
    According to Xinhua Finance, foreign media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the EU is working with the Group of Seven (G7) to discuss limiting the price of Russian crude oil to between $65 and $70 per barrel, which is much higher than Russia's production costs
    .

    However, the specific landing time of the Russian oil limit price is still doubtful
    .
    On the one hand, it is not yet known how Russia will respond to the "price limit order", and once Russia responds strongly in terms of production, it is bound to deepen the tightness of supply in the oil market; On the other hand, there is also uncertainty
    about when the global crude oil market's low inventories will start repairing.

    Against this background, institutions have diverged
    in their judgments on the future trend of oil prices.
    Goldman Sachs Group said that the outlook for the oil market next spring is extremely uncertain, but it is still optimistic about the oil market in the spring of 2023; Victor expects oil prices to weaken in the first half of 2023 and likely to rise
    in the second half as oil demand rebounds.

    Copper prices have continued to fall

    LME copper extended its decline last week, closing down 0.
    57% on the week, and has retraced about 7% from the high at the beginning of the month; The main Shanghai copper contract fell 0.
    68% on a weekly basis, retraced more than 2%
    from its November 11 high.

    Chile's Escondida copper mine union decided to go on strike
    on November 21 and 23.
    According to the data, the copper mine is the world's highest annual output of open-pit copper, accounting for 8% of the global copper ore production, the market judges that the short-term strike of the copper mine may have a certain impact
    on copper supply.

    However, Guangzhou Futures believes that the main reason for the tight supply and demand of the copper market for most of this year is not the mine end, but the smelting end, so the impact of the event is limited at present, and more attention should be paid to the release of refined copper production and the supply of
    scrap copper.

    For the future market copper price, Meierya Futures said that the current macro expectations are sawing, the fundamentals have begun to show signs of weakening, and the price pressure is expected to gradually increase
    .

    Hog prices fell sharply

    Last week, the price of LH2301, the main contract of large commercial pigs, fell rapidly, with a cumulative decline of nearly 5% during the week, approaching the 20,000 yuan / ton mark
    .
    In the spot market, according to the price changes of important means of production in the circulation field announced by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 24, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) fell by 5.
    1%
    in mid-November compared with early November.

    Looking at the long cycle, since September, the hog futures 2301 contract first rose and then fell, rising to a historical high of 24,300 yuan / ton and then fell back to nearly 20,000 yuan / ton; In terms of spot, the domestic pig price reached 27.
    7 yuan / kg on October 20, a high price this year, an increase of more than 130% from the low price of the year, but began to decline
    rapidly since the end of October.

    For the phenomenon that pig prices rise first and then fall, CICC believes that the change in the strength of supply and demand fundamentals is the main reason for price fluctuations, that is, the supply side turns from tight to loose, and the demand side turns from strong to weak
    .
    Specifically, on the supply side, affected by the pressure bar and secondary fattening disturbance, the supply contraction was obvious
    from September to mid-October.
    After mid-October, the enthusiasm of breeding entities to slaughter increased significantly, the proportion of large-weight pigs out of slaughter increased significantly due to secondary fattening, and the supply pressure was gradually released.
    On the demand side, boosted by consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, demand was relatively strong
    from September to October.
    After mid-October, the holiday benefits gradually dissipated, and terminal consumption returned to light
    .

    Looking forward to the pig price in the future market, COFCO Futures said that the bearish sentiment in the market is still high, coupled with the short-term downstream consumption is still difficult to increase, the number of pig enterprises above designated size is increasing, the willingness of farmers to raise prices is weakened, and it is difficult for pig futures to rebound
    strongly in the short term.
    In the absence of further favorable demand on the demand side, hog prices may continue to weaken.

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