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Russian wheat in focus: Wheat export prices fell last week on ample supply

 Last Update: 2022-12-30
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media news on December 6: Russian wheat export prices fell last week because Russian wheat production hit a record and Black Sea exporters actively cut prices for promotion
, analysts said.

As of last Friday (Dec.
2), FOB prices for Russia's 12.
5% protein new season wheat in Black Sea ports were $315 per tonne, down $2 from a week ago
, according to IKAR, a Moscow-based consultancy.
Chicago wheat futures fell 4.
5 percent last week and Euronext's wheat futures fell 3.
4 percent
.

Data from SovEcon, another consulting firm in Moscow, said the price of Russian wheat for spot delivery fell to $314 to $318, down from $315 to $319 a tonne a week ago
.

Domestic wheat prices in Russia were stable
last week.
Domestic third-grade wheat (excluding VAT) was quoted at 12,650 rubles per tonne, unchanged
from a week ago.

Russia exported 1 million tonnes of grain last week, up from 780,000 tonnes the previous week, SovEcon,
citing port data.

In addition, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has already purchased 2.
21 million tons of domestic wheat in the current year to replenish stocks of state intervention
.
The acquisition target for the current year is set at 3 million tons
.

On November 21, IKAR head Dimitry Rilke told Russia's Interfax news agency that IKAR had raised its 2022/23 wheat export forecast to 44 million mt, up from an earlier forecast of 42 million mt due to high demand for Russian wheat and large
domestic stocks.
When talking about which countries have the strongest demand for Russian wheat, Rilke mentioned Turkey and Egypt, as well as Alria, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh and Pakistan
.
IKAR expects Russian wheat production at 101.
5 million mt, 500,000 mt
higher than its October 31 forecast.

Consultancy SovEcon raised its 2022/23 (July-June) wheat export forecast to 43.
7 million mt on Nov.
7, after an earlier forecast of 300,000 mt as the pace of exports accelerated
.
SovEcon expects Russia's wheat production to reach a record 100.
6 million mt in 2022/23, with an export potential of around 50 million mt
.
But the pace of exports was weak early in the year, and a strong ruble, combined with export tariffs, limited the size of
exports.

On November 9, the USDA forecast Russia's 2022/23 wheat production was 91 million mt, up 21.
1%
from 75.
16 million mt the previous year.
Russian wheat exports in 2022/23 are expected to reach a record 42 million mt, up 27.
3%
from 33 million mt in the previous year.

Russian farmers have harvested 105.
3 million tons of wheat

Russia's harvest of all grains was 156.
2 million tonnes (before drying and washing) as of Dec.
1, compared with 155 million tonnes a week ago and 126.
3 million tonnes
a year earlier, according to data released by the Russian government.

Russia has harvested 105.
3 million tonnes of wheat so far, compared with 105.
2 million tonnes last week and 79 million tonnes
in the same period last year.

Russian farmers began harvesting winter wheat
in July.
Russian wheat yields rose to 3.
60 tonnes per hectare this year, compared with 2.
84 tonnes/ha
in the same period last year.

Russian farmers have planted 17.
7 million hectares of winter cereals, unchanged from a week ago and 18.
4 million hectares
a year ago.
The weather in the Volga region, as well as in the central regions of Russia, is conducive to the growth
of cereals in winter.
But the weather in the Krasnodar Territory and Stavropol Territory, located in southern Russia, is a little dry
.

Russian wheat tariffs raised

For the period from December 7 to 13, 2022, the export duty on Russian wheat and blended wheat is 2,806.
8 rubles (about $45.
04)
per ton.
This compares to 2,788 rubles (about $45.
31)
per ton for the period from November 30 to December 6.
For comparison, before the first ruble-denominated export tax was introduced in July, the wheat export tax from June 29 to July 5 was $146.
10/mt
.

Wheat sellers in Russia usually price their exports in dollars and buy wheat
in rubles on the domestic market.
The calculation of export duties has become more complicated
by the recent sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and reduced convertibility.
Since July, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has priced wheat export duties in rubles and set the base price of wheat for which tariffs are calculated at 15,000 rubles instead of the previous $
200 per tonne.
The base price for the export of barley and corn was also changed from 185 US dollars / ton to 13,875 rubles
.

The ruble has fallen over the past week

The ruble was trading at 62.
32 rubles to the dollar on Monday, compared with 61.
30 rubles
a week ago.

The ruble approached 80 against the dollar on February 23 (before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict), then fell to an all-time low of $121.
53 to the dollar in early March, before soaring to a seven-year high
of $50.
01 to the dollar in June.
The strong ruble has raised concerns among Russian policymakers and exporters, as a strong ruble could weaken exporters' sales revenues
.
The ruble remains the world's strongest currency
so far this year.

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