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    Home > Active Ingredient News > Infection > Sci Rep: How to deal with the second outbreak of the new crown? The new study successfully simulated the development of secondary outbreaks in Europe through predictive models.

    Sci Rep: How to deal with the second outbreak of the new crown? The new study successfully simulated the development of secondary outbreaks in Europe through predictive models.

    • Last Update: 2020-10-03
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    In recent days, a new storm appears to be brewing, with Europe at a dangerous "turning point" in the second shock of the new crown outbreak, with many governments forced to tighten control measures.
    , the number of new confirmed cases in European countries such as Spain, France, the UK and Belgium has risen sharply.
    to this, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe Director Kluger warned: "Recently, the number of new confirmed cases of coronary pneumonia per week in Europe has exceeded the level at the peak of the outbreak in March this year, is facing a very serious situation!" "It has to be said that as early as March and April, many experts and scholars at home and abroad have predicted that the new crown outbreak is unlikely to end in 2020, and even in the second half of the year, the colder northern hemisphere region may continue to have several outbreaks.
    these predictions are now validated by reality.
    first outbreak of the new crown outbreak is largely due to the sudden incident, many prevention and control measures can not be implemented in a timely manner.
    now, faced with the threat of a secondary outbreak, can humans predict the development of the new crown outbreak based on available data to avoid or reduce the damage caused by the secondary impact of the outbreak? Recently, researchers from the University of Lyon in France, the University of Southern Denmark and the University of Naples in Italy published a journal, Scientific Reports, entitled: Second Wave COVID? 19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook research paper.
    study used the Epidemiological Reorgetation Group (eRG) approach, combined with the first wave of data from the COVID-19 pandemic, to effectively simulate the spread of the epidemic in different European countries.
    , financial markets, industries and even individuals can use the predictive model to effectively schedule, prepare and implement prevention and control protections, the researchers said.
    So far, the global pandemic of COVID-19 has killed nearly 1 million people, so if there is a second new crown outbreak in Europe, the damage and damage to human society, economy and life security will be incalculable.
    , disease transmission dynamics have traditionally been modeled through zoning diffusion or complex network diffusion techniques that provide a fairly accurate description of the time evolution of the number of individuals affected.
    , however, it would be a daunting task to predict the future evolution of a pandemic and explain its spread in different parts of the world.
    in this study, the team showed that the Epidemiological Re-normalization Group (eRG) is a simple and efficient method consisting of a first-order micro equation to describe the between the 1st and longer-term evolution of infection cases in a particular isolated region.
    , it has been extended to include interactions across multiple regions of the world without the need for powerful numerical simulations.
    the eRG prediction model, the team applied the method to the COVID-19 prediction and calibrated it against the first wave of outbreak data, effectively simulating the current second wave of outbreak trends across Europe.
    an average statistical analysis of different levels of human interaction in Europe and the rest of the world found that the second wave of new crown outbreaks could occur between July 2020 and January 2021.
    , Belgium, Croatia, Greece, the Netherlands and Spain are all predicted to experience secondary outbreaks.
    link between France and other European countries, which are already showing signs of a second wave of outbreaks by early August 2020.
    , the researchers also found that their method could also be used to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic outside Europe.
    Comparing the total number of infections in Croatia (updated to August 5) with the eRG predictive model curve (orange line), the authors said: "We expect that our findings will provide a more quantitative predictor of the future COVID-19 pandemic, which could be used by governments, financial markets and industry to implement local and global safeguards."
    more importantly, the eRG predictive model can be easily updated to take into account the current situation in each country.
    , this method can timely remind European countries and even countries around the world, so that as soon as possible before the outbreak of the second outbreak to take quarantine protection measures, so as to reduce or even eliminate the damage and damage caused by the outbreak of the second shock.
    epidemiological data (red lines) from
    sample countries compared to the eRG predictive model curve, the study built a simple and efficient eRG model, successfully predicted a second outbreak in Europe, and predicted trends in line with the current outbreak situation in Europe.
    , the forecasting method can also be extended to other countries and regions of the world, so as to provide governments, all sectors of society and even individuals with adequate prevention and control time!
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