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For decades, scientists have predicted that under the condition of continuous climate change, the leaves of temperate trees will fall more and more later
However, a large-scale study of European trees now shows that this trend has begun to change; in fact, as the productivity of these trees increases, the leaves may begin to fall prematurely
Although changes in the length of the growing season of temperate trees will greatly affect the global carbon balance, due to poor understanding of the environmental drivers of autumn leaf aging, there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the trajectory of the future growth season
To this end, Deborah Zani and colleagues used long-term observation data of major tree species in Central Europe from 1948 to 2015, as well as experimental designs used to change the carbon uptake of trees, in order to evaluate the related effects on leaf senescence
The model predicts that for the rest of this century, the rate of fall of autumn leaves may be slightly earlier than later