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September 23, 2020 /---Xinhua) -- Natural immunization and vaccine-induced immunity will be key factors affecting the future trajectory of the global coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), according to new research.
by researchers at Princeton University was recently published in the journal Science.
that developing a vaccine that can cause a strong immune response can significantly reduce the burden of future infections.
, co-first author of the paper, said: "So far, discussions about the future trajectory of COVID-19 have rightly focused on the effects of seasonal and non-drug interventions, such as wearing masks and social isolation.
the short term, noncommunicable diseases are a key factor in determining the burden of cases during pandemics.
, the role of immunization will become more and more important as we look to the future.
We don't know the strength or duration of the body's natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 or vaccines," explains Caroline Wagner, associate professor of bioengineering at McGill University at www.pixabay.com.
, for example, if it is possible to re-infect, what is the immune response to their previous infection? Can this immune response prevent the virus from spreading to others? All of this will affect the dynamics of future outbreaks.
" current study, based on a study published May 18 in the journal Science, says localised climate change is unlikely to dominate the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
recent paper, researchers used a simple model to predict the incidence of future COVID-19 cases and human immunity based on a series of assumptions about the likelihood of individuals spreading the virus in different environments.
published interactive versions of model predictions online under these different assumptions.
, as expected, the model found that the initial pandemic peak was largely immune-independent because most people were susceptible to infection.
, however, a large number of epidemics may occur as SARS-CoV-2 infections increase in the population (and therefore increase immunity).
Andrea Graham, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at Princeton University, said: "If the immune response is weak, or if it prevents re-infection temporarily, there will be a wider and more frequent outbreak in the future."
the nature of the immune response can also affect clinical outcomes and the burden of serious cases requiring hospitalization, the researchers found.
key issue is the severity of subsequent infections compared to primary infections.
study found that in all cases, vaccines that can cause a strong immune response can significantly reduce the number of future cases, even if only partial protection against secondary transmission is effective.
(bioon.com) Source: Long-term COVID-19 content will be shaped by strength, duration of immunity Original source: "Immune life-history, ina, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next five years," Science (2020). science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi ... 1126/science.abd7343.