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Last Friday night market, the external aluminum market under pressure and heavy decline, the decline further expanded, of which 3 months Lun aluminum fell 1.
1% to 1575 US dollars / ton, the closing price hit a new low in three months, short-term London aluminum RSI indicator into the oversold area, need to be wary of technical rebound demand, intraday support focus on M200 that is, 1562 US dollars / ton, rebound resistance 1630 US dollars / ton
.
Industry: In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased to 2.
732 million tons, an increase of 4.
9% year-on-year, and the new annualized operating capacity was about 650,000 tons to 32.
167 million tons, due to the release of new production capacity in Shandong Weiqiao, Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Hope, Guangxi Bai Mine, etc.
, including Gansu Liancheng, Shanxi Zhaofeng, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Sichuan Qixing and other aluminum enterprises resumed production during the same period, driving the overall operation capacity to increase
.
Market: On September 9, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12630-12640 yuan / ton, and the premium for the month was 70-80 yuan / ton
.
The transaction in Shanghai is still not as good as in Wuxi, and the local transaction price in Wuxi is still relatively firm, and with the increase in dumping volume, the market price is lowered, and Hangzhou has fewer local supplies, so it maintains a high premium, and the downstream maintains on-demand procurement
.
At present, facing delivery, the basis of the next month is still 300 yuan / ton, and it is a short week before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the willingness of cargo holders to exchange cash has increased, and the premium may continue to decline
.
Inventories: LME aluminum stocks reported 2196350 tonnes as of September 9, down 24,075 tonnes or 1.
08% from last week, which was close to the low set on December 19, 2008 (2,158,200 tonnes); In the same period, the aluminum inventory in the previous period reported 125875 tons, a weekly increase of 8468 tons, a continuous increase of two weeks, but still far below the average inventory value of 240,000 tons during the year, and its low point for the year was 103072 tons
.
Last Friday's night market Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillation fell to 12,005 yuan / ton, still running below the moving average group, short-term downside risk remains, its performance slightly resistant to the decline of Lun aluminum
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract can be cautiously short below 12150 yuan, with a target of 11850 yuan / ton
.