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Overnight, the external aluminum market oscillation rose slightly, but has not effectively fallen below the low level oscillation for more than a week of finishing range, of which 3-month Lun aluminum slightly rose 0.
51% to 1581 yuan / ton, the closing price is still close to the low point of nearly three months, but the short-term Lun aluminum RSI indicator into the oversold area, need to be wary of technical rebound demand, intraday support focus on M200, rebound resistance of $1600 / ton
.
Industry: According to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, the global supply of primary aluminum from January to July this year was 513,000 tons, of which the demand for primary aluminum fell by 51,000 tons year-on-year, and the output fell by 205,000 tons year-on-year, and the production decline exceeded demand
.
Market: On September 21, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12690-12720 yuan / ton, the monthly premium was 340-350 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 12690-12740 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 12670-12720 yuan / ton
。 On the eve of the National Day, the continuous supply of goods is tight, the East China market has become a seller's market, the quotations of holders are rising, the market bullish atmosphere is strong, the willingness of middlemen to receive goods is extremely strong, almost crazy, the market low-price source of goods is instantly robbed, downstream enterprises have the willingness to prepare goods in advance, but the fear of heights is slightly inferior, and the overall transaction is active among
traders in the seller's market.
Stocks: LME aluminium stocks were 2161575 tonnes as of September 21, down 6,600 tonnes from yesterday, which were close to the low set on December 19, 2008 (2,158,200 tonnes); At the same time, as of September 14, the previous period of aluminum stocks reported 118438 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,437 tons, the first reduction in three weeks, still far below the average inventory of 240,000 tons in the year, and its low point for the year was 103072 tons
.
The oscillation of the main Shanghai aluminum contract stabilized to 12155 yuan / ton overnight, as the US dollar index fell under pressure and crude oil futures oscillated, which may partially offset the pressure
caused by the recovery of domestic primary aluminum production.
However, at present, Shanghai aluminum has not effectively got rid of the upper moving average suppression, and the operation needs to be cautious
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 1611 contract can be sold high and low between 12300-12000 yuan, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.