Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment on August 7

On the one hand, domestic environmental protection still restricts the supply of bauxite and limits the production of alumina, on the other hand, Jilin fired the first shot of policy cross-subsidy for captive power plants, which enhanced the expectation of the implementation of the national captive power plant policy, the cost of primary aluminum will still rise, and Shanghai aluminum has a margin of safety for long
.
In addition, the domestic stable growth policy and active expansion of domestic demand will drive aluminum consumption
.
It is expected that Shanghai aluminum still has room for growth, and it is recommended to continue to hold
it before.

Due to the expected heating season is still in place, the cost side pre-baked anode stops falling and rebounds, the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is still strong, coupled with the increase in inventory due to transportation and the proportion of aluminum water consumption, inventory still continues to decline, which does not reflect the expected significant weakening
of consumption.
If there is no macro emergency impact, it is expected that today's Shanghai aluminum operation will be 14400~14550 yuan / ton, and the discount will be 70~30 yuan / ton
.