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Shanghai aluminum rebounded overnight, and spot stocks were active after the pullback in aluminum prices at the beginning of the week, and the discount narrowed
.
Recently, there has been a power shortage in many places across the country, and Yunnan has continued to limit power, causing nearly one million tons of production capacity to resume production, and Inner Mongolia and Guangxi have also limited electricity
.
On Monday, aluminum ingot stocks fell slightly by 3,000 tons, Gongyi was affected by downstream power cuts, and heavy rains in Henan caused aluminum plants to stop production by 40,000 tons
.
Pay attention to whether there is a change
in the amount of the second batch of dumped reserves in the near future.
The supply in the off-season is frequently disturbed, Shanghai aluminum oscillates along the rising channel, and the short-selling profit and loss ratio near the upper edge of the channel appears, waiting for the opportunity
.
On the macro front, U.
S.
housing starts in June exceeded expectations, U.
S.
stocks rebounded, and concerns about the impact of the variant virus on economic recovery eased
.
Fundamentally, the current aluminum consumption has signs of weakening, but aluminum ingot inventory is still in the destocking cycle, this Monday aluminum ingot social inventory slightly decreased by 3,000 tons compared with last Thursday to 829,000 tons, the narrowing of the decline will have some pressure
on aluminum prices.
Last week, news of power cuts in many places across the country gave a certain boost to the price of aluminum prices
.
The Yunnan region has once again limited power, and the progress of restarting the electrolyzer is less than expected, and the new production capacity is planned to be further delayed
.
The power rationing in Henan has led to a slight accumulation of the social treasury, but according to the survey of information providers, its overall impact is controllable, processing enterprises are restricted during the day and increase production at night, while the power rationing time is expected to last Sunday or so, with limited
impact on aluminum downstream enterprises.
Overall, the impact of power cuts on electrolytic aluminum enterprises is sustainable or higher than that of aluminum processing enterprises, the market is still worried about the expectation of short-term supply release, and the overall will still go to the warehouse in July, but the short-term suspension of Henan processing enterprises has led to the accumulation of social libraries, affecting market sentiment, and aluminum prices are expected to be range-bound
.
