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Shanghai aluminum rebounded
overnight.
The rhythm of domestic destocking is still good, and the weekly destocking of aluminum ingots is about
50,000 tons.
Aluminum price pullback spot premium expanded, South China aluminum rod processing fee rose to a high level of more than 800 yuan, rigid demand is strong
.
The short-term Shanghai aluminum technical situation is weak, the early shock platform looks for support, the Yunnan power rationing event occurs in the peak season, the aluminum market destocking will continue, and it is still a stocking opportunity
after the pullback.
At the macro level, the country often speaks out on commodities that rise too fast, bulls are under pressure, and policy-level regulatory risks may become an important factor
in the current market uncertainty risk.
Fundamentally, on the one hand, due to the upgrade of power cuts in Yunnan, the power load of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant has been reduced by more than 30%, which is expected to last until mid-June, and the production reduction or impact on the output is between 100,000 and 190,000 tons, and the suspended production capacity will be restored in July at the earliest; At the same time, the consumption season at the end of May is still being fulfilled, and it is expected that the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory will continue to decline in the short term, so the short-term supply of electrolytic aluminum is not as expected to give some support
to aluminum prices.
Overall, aluminum prices have experienced a wave of rapid rise in the early stage of the market has a certain degree of correction, macro uncertain risk or and fundamental good pattern into the game, it is expected that aluminum prices will enter a period of shock adjustment, if the later with the weakening of consumption margin, aluminum prices still have certain risks
.
Strategically, it is recommended to focus on range operations, and in the medium term, it remains optimistic about aluminum prices
.
