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On February 3, the Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract bottomed out and rebounded, closing at 13,760 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 55 yuan / ton from the settlement price of the previous trading day, or 0.
4%
per day.
At the same time, the positive price difference between Shanghai-aluminum 1702 and 1703 contracts remained at 70 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract has a strong
willingness to resist decline.
In terms of external trading: Yashi Lun aluminum bottomed down, trading flat, and the trend of Shanghai aluminum resonated
.
3-month Lun aluminum as low as 1817 US dollars / ton, technically, MACD formed a dead cross during the Spring Festival, but the position is low, indicating that the current short trend is difficult to sustain, and the long and short game is fierce
.
Macro: During the Spring Festival holiday, the dollar index fell day by day due to
Trump's weak dollar remarks.
The Asian dollar index fluctuated widely, reaching as high as 99.
964 and is now trading around
99.
91.
In addition, the central bank raised the reverse repo winning interest rate by 10 basis points across the board, and raised the SLF interest rate, and raised the overnight variety by 35 basis points to 3.
1%.
Aluminum News, Citi recently issued a report, upgrading Rusal's rating from "sell" to "buy", with a sharp increase in the target price by 93% to 6.
1 yuan, that is, an increase of more than 20% from the current price
.
Market: On February 3, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 13360-13370 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 310-240 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 13330-13350 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13360-13380 yuan / ton
.
On the first day of the holiday return, most of the market supply and demand sides have not yet returned, but need to pay attention to the Spring Festival concentrated arrival, it is expected that the inventory increase is large, the future-cash price difference is still large, speculative traders are willing to sell and buy cash
.
During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract bottomed out
.
Fundamentally, on the first day after the long holiday, the supply and demand sides of the market have not returned; The latest LME stocks continued the downward momentum of the Spring Festival and decreased to 2.
26 million mt
.
On the technical side, the MACD red energy column showed obvious signs of shrinking, and the position volume continued to shrink; Although Shanghai aluminum continues the pre-holiday pullback trend, it should not be overly bearish, and the overall pattern
is more numerous.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1703 contract be long reference 13700 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 13500 yuan / ton
.
