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As of Friday's close at 3 p.
m.
, the Shanghai aluminum main 2108 contract closed up at 19470, up 125, or 0.
65%; During the week, Shanghai aluminum continued to break the upward position, and the main force broke through the 19,500 mark again, attacking the 20,000 mark
.
This week's aluminum ingot inventory recorded 832,000 tons, down 2.
6 from last Thursday, and the destocking was generally good, but the destocking speed slowed
down significantly in the second half of the week due to the decline in demand performance due to rising prices and power cuts in consumption areas.
On the supply side, the recent resumption of production projects increased, following Qinghai Xinheng, Zhongwang stopped production capacity is rumored to resume production, but the country has entered the hot summer period, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Henan and other places power supply is tight, and the power rationing area is gradually increasing, although the actual interference on smelting is limited, but considering the high temperature weather still to last 1-2 months, the tight power supply situation can not be alleviated temporarily, the worry about supply disruption may be difficult to dissipate, although the consumption place is also disturbed resulting in demand backward, early accumulation rhythm, But the impact on relative prices may be greater
.
On the macro front, the Fed chairman continues to speak out to maintain the current policy stance, but the actual high inflation data is exacerbating the divergence of views within the Fed, and it may be difficult to reach
a conclusion in the short term.
In terms of prices, given the undecided policy direction and more obvious concerns about domestic supply, prices are mainly upward and the center of gravity is rising
.
Recently, due to rumors in Yunnan region to cut power again, aluminum prices have performed well in the entire non-ferrous sector, the overall supply and demand of fundamentals are weak, the resumption of production in Yunnan on the supply side is relatively slow, and the downstream demand margin of consumption is weakening
.
In terms of price, because the supply and demand ends of aluminum will still benefit from the impact of the concept of "carbon neutrality" for a long time in the future, it is still recommended to treat it with a long idea in the cross-variety arbitrage strategy (multi-aluminum air zinc), unilaterally due to the recent macro uncertainty is still high, and the non-ferrous sector as a whole is affected by macro, the short-term is still recommended to wait and see
.
