Shanghai aluminum continues to fluctuate and recover, and the market is afraid of heights

On the macro front, the US PPI in March was -0.
1% month-on-month, 0.
2% expected, and -0.
2% prior; -0.
1% y/y, 0.
3% expected, 0.
0%
prior.
March core PPI -0.
1% m/m, 0.
1% expected, 0.
0% prior; 1% y/y, 1.
3% expected, 1.
2%
prior.
US retail sales in March were -0.
3% m/m vs 0.
1% expected vs.
0.
0%
prior.
Eurozone industrial output in February was 0.
8% y/y versus 1.
3% expected, -0.
8% m/m and -0.
7%
expected.
The two major economic indicators of PPI and retail sales in the United States were less than expected, the manufacturing performance of the euro area was not satisfactory, and the economic recovery of the United States and Europe was long
.
Domestically, China's exports in March rose for the first time in nine months by 18.
7% year-on-year (in RMB terms); 14.
9% expected, -20.
6%
prior.
Imports year-on-year (in RMB) -1.
7%, expected -4.
8%, previous value -8%, China's economic growth one of the three major carriages of export data warmed
.

In terms of the market, as the futures price approached 12,000 yuan / ton in the market, middlemen and downstream end-users generally held a wait-and-see attitude, and it was difficult for holders to ship, and the price contraction rose
.
The price of Nanchu East China aluminum ingots was 11970-12010 yuan, with an average price of 11990 yuan, up 210 yuan
from the previous trading day.
The price of South China aluminum ingots was 12040-12140 yuan, with an average price of 12090 yuan, up 220 yuan
from the previous trading day.
Domestic alumina prices remained unchanged
everywhere yesterday.

In terms of industry, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March 2016 were 420,000 tons, an increase of 16.
7% year-on-year, and China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in the first three months of this year were 1.
08 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.
0%.

Exports increased significantly year-on-year in March, but the overall picture in Q1 remained bleak
.

Overall, with the continuous recovery of aluminum prices, the market is afraid of heights
.
From the plate, it was also noticed that after Shanghai aluminum stood at a high of more than 11850 yuan / ton, its trend volatility increased significantly
.
It is expected that the long-short game between Shanghai and aluminum will further intensify in the near future, and it will fluctuate sharply in the short term
.