Shanghai aluminum continues to fluctuate in a narrow range and be wary of market sentiment disturbances

Fundamentally, at present, the production capacity in the southwest region is slowly resuming, but the dual control policy of energy consumption and the environmental protection production limit of the Winter Olympics are still advancing, and the increase on the supply side is limited and remains tight
.

On the cost side, with the recent decline in alumina prices, the losses of electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises have eased, and the production of some enterprises has returned to the break-even line
.
In the near future, the demand for downstream replenishment orders is acceptable, and consumption has improved in stages, but it is necessary to be vigilant that downstream processing enterprises will limit production again due to environmental protection requirements in the heating season and the Winter Olympics, and there is still an expected risk
of weakening real estate consumption.

In terms of inventory, according to the latest inventory data, the domestic aluminum ingot social library continues to destock, and major consumption areas such as Wuxi, Nanhai and Shanghai contribute mainly to destocking
.
As of Dec.
09, LME stocks stood at 890,700 mt, down 03,700 mt
from the previous session.
As of Dec.
09, ingot social stocks fell 26,000 tonnes from Monday to 952,000 tonnes
.

In terms of news:

1.
The State Council recently issued the Notice on Further Implementing the Administrative Punishment Law of the People's Republic of China to further standardize the implementation of
administrative punishments.
Adhere to the principle of leniency and strictness, and must not "one-size-fits-all" administrative punishments
such as ordering production and business suspension or ordering closure without ascertaining the facts of the violation.

2.
According to statistics, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 378,000 units in November 2021, a year-on-year increase of 122.
3% and a month-on-month increase of 19.
8%.

Retail sales of NEVs from January to November 2021 reached 2.
514 million units, up 178.
3%
y/y.
The boom in consumption of new energy vehicles has boosted the consumption of aluminum
terminals.

3.
Recently, Henan Department of Industry and Information Technology issued the implementation rules for capacity replacement in the steel and electrolytic aluminum industries (for trial implementation).

Recently, Baise City, Guangxi issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of New Ecological Aluminum Industry in Baise City" to build a new ecological aluminum industry system
.
The European Commission issued an announcement to make an anti-dumping affirmative final ruling on aluminum conversion foil products originating in China, and decided to impose anti-dumping duties
of 15.
4-28.
5% on the products involved in the case in China.