Shanghai aluminum decline slows short-term inventories put pressure on aluminum prices

As China's stimulus measures eased epidemic worries, and Lun Aluminum stopped falling and stabilized, the decline of Shanghai aluminum slowed down, and the main intraday returned to the 13500 mark support, and the overall shock was around
13600-13700 yuan.
Inventory accumulation and market concerns about primary aluminum consumption are concentrated on the plate
.

Since the Spring Festival holiday, 255,000 tons have been accumulated, and the current electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased to 945,000 tons
.
As of Friday, the spot aluminum price in East China was 13520-13560 yuan / ton, down 570 yuan / ton from before the holiday, and the futures discount was 110; Market demand is weak, and the resumption of work of downstream enterprises is generally extended to after the 15th of the first month, which is about a week later than the traditional situation
.

At the macro level, the previous improvement in epidemic data and the landing of a series of policy measures boosted market sentiment; On the cost side, the price of alumina rose slightly this week, affected by the epidemic, the production of some alumina companies was also affected, and the price may rise slightly in the later period, thereby supporting the cost side of electrolytic aluminum; On the supply side, due to the impact of the epidemic, the transportation of raw materials has been blocked, and aluminum companies that have begun to resume production in the early stage and newly put into production have postponed the resumption of production in order to maintain normal production
.

According to the current situation, the supply pressure may not be released in the short term; On the demand side, the latest social inventory of aluminum ingots was 1.
035 million tons, 90,000 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 255,000 tons
from before the holiday.
At present, downstream processing enterprises have postponed the resumption of work, and it is not ruled out that the downstream industry will continue to postpone the resumption of work, and short-term inventory will put pressure on aluminum prices
.
In the short term, inventories continue to pressure aluminum prices, but in the later downstream recovery, supply and demand mismatch situation, aluminum prices have a large upside, it is recommended to bargain layout long
.