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On February 5, LME aluminum was hindered on Wednesday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1703.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
26%
per day.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, with the highest 13655 yuan / ton and the lowest 13540 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 13625 yuan / ton, up 0.
15% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 39395 lots, and the daily decrease was 5763 lots; The position was 86,800 lots, a daily decrease of 4,094 lots
.
The basis was reduced to -165 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai aluminum in 2003-2004 narrowed to -30 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) Caixin China's service sector recorded 51.
8 in January, down 0.
7 percentage points, a three-month low; the composite PMI fell 0.
4 percentage points to 53
.
(2) U.
S.
factory orders rose 1.
8% m/m in December versus 1.
2% expected, and the previous value was revised from a decline of 0.
7% to a decline of 1.
2%.
(3) According to my nonferrous metal network, the start time of aluminum profile enterprises in various places has been delayed, and the enterprises originally scheduled to start work from February 2 to 5 will postpone the start of production, and enterprises will start online office receiving orders and other work from February 3 to 5, and it is initially expected that the factory will gradually resume work
after February 10.
Spot analysis: On February 5, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13440-13480 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13460 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 10 yuan / ton
.
Intraday market trading is still light, middlemen tend to receive goods, but holders do not ship much, and the actual transaction is limited
.
A small amount of downstream stocking is not obvious
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 87,354 tons on Wednesday, a daily increase of 5,066 tons; On February 4, LME aluminum stocks were 1257950 tons, down 30,400 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 55823 lots, minus 4317 lots per day, short positions were 63168 lots, daily minus 7345 lots, net short positions were 7345 lots, a daily increase of 1202 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.
Market research and judgment: On February 5, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly in 2003
.
The People's Bank of China has released liquidity of 1.
7 trillion yuan in two days, and there are still expectations of stimulus policies, and market concerns have eased, which is positive for aluminum prices
.
However, affected by the epidemic, the start time of aluminum profile enterprises in various places has been delayed, downstream demand has declined, and domestic aluminum inventories have also rebounded sharply recently; The US economic data performed strongly, coupled with the market believing that it was difficult for the UK and Europe to reach a trade deal within the deadline, the US dollar index was running strongly, and the upward movement of aluminum prices was weak
.
In terms of spot, intraday market trading is still light, and middlemen tend to receive goods, but holders do not ship much, and the actual transaction is limited
.
A small amount of downstream stocking is not obvious
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily KDJ of Shanghai aluminum continued to be low, focusing on the support of the 13550 position below, and it is expected to recover slightly in the short term
.
