Shanghai aluminum fell sharply and is expected to adjust in the short-term range

Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
Treasury expects to borrow $274 billion from January to March, about $853 billion less than the U.
S.
Treasury forecast in November, when it was expected to be $1.
127 trillion
.
(2) The Congressional Budget Office expects real GDP to shrink by 2.
5% in 2020 and grow by 3.
7%
in 2021.
The unemployment rate is expected to be 6.
8% in 2020, 5.
3% in 2021 and 4.
9%
in 2022.
(3) According to Marubeni Corporation, the aluminum inventory of Japan's three major ports increased by 5.
1% from the previous month to 266,900 tons at the end of December 2020, and the inventory at the end of November was 254,000 tons
.

Spot analysis: On February 2, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15170-15210 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15190 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation supply is sufficient, traders are waiting and seeing, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the transaction activity is weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 82,931 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 150 tons; On February 1, LME aluminum stocks were 1428175 tons, down 2,875 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 93562 lots, minus 5952 lots per day, short positions are 116355 lots, daily minus 6313 lots, net short positions are 22793 lots, daily minus 361 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2103 fell
sharply on February 2.
The U.
S.
Treasury's quarter-of-the-money funding program cut more than expected, while U.
S.
economic growth is expected to reach 3.
7 percent this year, making the dollar more attractive and the dollar index continuing to rise
.
The recent closure of the import arbitrage window has curbed the inflow
of overseas goods.
However, the inventory of aluminum in Japan's three major Hong Kong recorded a rebound in December, indicating that supply pressure increased; And the high domestic electrolytic aluminum profits stimulate the release of production capacity, the market supply performance is abundant, coupled with the end of the year downstream stocking is basically over, demand gradually weakened, recent inventory growth trend, aluminum prices above the face of resistance
.
Technically, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position and gave up its gains, focusing on the support of the 14750 position, and it is expected that the short-term range will be adjusted
.