Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure and paid attention to the improvement of demand in the peak season

Market focus: (1) The U.
S.
House of Representatives will vote on the latest version of the epidemic assistance bill passed by the Senate on Tuesday local time, and the House is expected to pass the bill
.
U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the pandemic relief bill is unlikely to cause inflation problems
.
(2) U.
S.
unprocessed aluminum exports were 4,029.
7 tons in January, down from 6,635.
8 tons in December 2020; U.
S.
unprocessed aluminum imports were 8.
78 tons in January, up sharply from 1.
16 tons in December 2020
.

Spot analysis: On March 9, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 17160-17200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 17180 yuan / ton, down 310 yuan / ton
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that cargo holders began to sell, traders waited and watched, large households were generally enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the transaction situation was average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 131572 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 14,037 tons; On March 8, LME aluminum stocks were 1293225 tons, a daily decrease of 5,925 tons, a 23-day
decline.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2104 contract 119293 lots, a daily decrease of 3163 lots, short positions of 141963 lots, a daily decrease of 6349 lots, a net short position of 22670 lots, a daily reduction of 3186 lots, long and short reduction, net space reduction
.

Market research and judgment: On March 9, Shanghai aluminum 2104 fell under pressure
.
The progress of the $1.
9 trillion stimulus package in the United States, coupled with the Federal Reserve's statement that it is still not enough to stimulate the Fed to raise interest rates, and rising expectations of economic growth and inflation, have strengthened US Treasury yields and the US dollar
.
Domestic aluminum production profits remain high, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to increase, but the pace of production has slowed down, and under the carbon peak policy, Inner Mongolia will no longer approve new projects
this year.
The downstream is still weak, and the aluminum price is high, and the recent domestic inventory has increased significantly, which has also led to a rise in downstream wait-and-see sentiment, aluminum prices are facing pullback pressure, and follow-up attention to the improvement of
demand in the peak season.
Technically, the mainstream short position of the main 2104 contract of Shanghai aluminum is greatly reduced, and the daily MACD dead cross signs are expected to fall slightly in the future
.