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Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of first rising and then suppressing, with the main 2107 contract closing at 18280 yuan, down 390 yuan
for the week.
The Shanghai Aluminum Index continued its weak trend, but there was support from the previous low and the 60-day moving average below, to see if this support is effective
.
On the macro front, on Thursday night, the US economic data released a bright performance, the US ISM services index hit a new high in May, and the number of new ADP jobs hit the highest
in a year.
U.
S.
manufacturing data is good, the economy is recovering steadily, the Federal Reserve intends to disclose to the market the problem of tightening liquidity, and the dollar index is stronger, putting pressure
on non-ferrous metals.
It is recommended to pay attention to the June Fed interest rate meeting
.
In terms of news, according to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of the automotive industry in May is expected to complete 2.
204 million units, down 2.
1% month-on-month and up 0.
5% year-on-year.
According to the pattern of previous years, the production of traditional automobiles in the second quarter generally continued to decline
.
In terms of stocks, on Thursday, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 954,000 tons, down 08,000 tons
from last Thursday.
The decline in social inventories of electrolytic aluminum has slowed
this week.
Last week's aluminum inventory totaled 330,000 tons, down 05,000 tons
from last week.
At present, the electrolytic aluminum industry has entered the stage of destocking, and the inflection point of inventory has also appeared
.
On the whole, except for the aluminum cable industry, due to the centralized delivery of early orders, and the State Grid bidding to supplement new orders, the start of construction is good, and the start of other sectors is marginally weakened
.
The recycled aluminum industry, which has relatively weak consumption
, has even sold off.
At present, aluminum prices have fallen by about 2,000 points
from their high level.
From the perspective of the trend of the commodity market, the supply and demand fundamentals of a single variety are not the key to affecting its price trend, and market sentiment and national policies have become the key to determining the
price trend.
After a continuous decline, the top of the aluminum price may have appeared, and the shock downward trend may continue
.