Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a low level, and the uncertainty of market sentiment increased

On Wednesday, the main 2109 contract of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a low level, with the highest 19,820 yuan / ton, the lowest 19,670 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 19,780 yuan / ton, down 0.
3% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum trend is volatile, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum is at 2594 US dollars / ton, up 0.
21%
from the previous session.

Market focus: (1) Fed Governor Bowman: It may take a while to get some people back into the labor market; Recruitment difficulties have been encountered and the employment rate is still far below the original level; The record number of job openings is an encouraging sign; More needs to be done
to get the U.
S.
economy back strong.
(2) Mi Feng, spokesman of the National Health Commission, introduced at the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on the 4th that as of 9 a.
m.
on August 4, 17 provinces had reported existing local confirmed cases or asymptomatic infections, and there were 144 medium- and high-risk areas in the country, and the number of medium- and high-risk areas was the largest since the
normalization of epidemic prevention and control.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 19710-19750 yuan / ton, the average price was 19730 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan
per day.
The market circulation is tight, the holders actively ship, the receiver purchases on demand, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the overall transaction is relatively average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 90,766 tons, an increase of 498 tons per day; LME stocks were 1363475 tonnes, down 7,675 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2109 contract 153985 lots, minus 1485 lots per day, short positions 151812 lots, 4223 lots per day, net long positions 2173 lots, daily minus 1430 lots
.
Both long and short and net long are reduced
.

Market research: The recent deterioration of the epidemic at home and abroad, the US and Chinese manufacturing data are not as expected, indicating that although the economy is still recovering, the pace of recovery has slowed
down significantly.
This week's focus is on the US non-farm payrolls report for July, which has a key guiding effect on the
Fed's future policy direction.
Fundamentals, Yunnan and other southwest regions of the power shortage continued to not ease, electrolytic aluminum production capacity was delayed, the market as a whole focused on the logic
of supply constraints.
In addition, this year's peak season cycle is long and social inventories continue to be low, giving strong support
to aluminum prices.
The near-term risk lies in the spread of the domestic epidemic and the increased uncertainty of market sentiment
.