Shanghai aluminum fluctuates at a high level, and the situation of short supply and demand will continue

Severe coal shortages in India recently, severe drought in Brazil has led to the collapse of local hydroelectric power generation, global energy shortages continue to push up U.
S.
oil prices, and European and American natural gas futures have reached new highs
.
In addition, affected by the previous overseas alumina plant accident, the price of two alumina transactions in Western Australia rose to more than 470 US dollars / ton in early October, which was 5% higher than before the holiday, approaching a new high
in the year.
The industrial electricity price in Guangdong has been adjusted since October 1, and the peak electricity price will increase by 25% in the peak section; Henan plans to implement time-of-use electricity prices
from November.

Fundamentally, the supply side continues to increase power rationing and production and dual control of energy consumption in China, which continues to interfere with the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and does not rule out the possibility
of increasing the scope of post-term electricity.
Before the holiday on the consumer side, the holders actively shipped and realized the goods, and the receivers pressed the price and waited and watched, and the overall transaction activity continued to decline
.
Pre-holiday inventory data show that domestic aluminum ingot social treasury has accumulated to a certain extent, and overseas destocking trend was maintained during the National Day period, falling by 39,900 tons to 1,198,400 tons
.

In terms of price, the supply and demand ends of aluminum will still benefit from the impact of the concept of "carbon neutrality" for a long time in the future, the impact of power rationing on the supply side is greater than the demand side, and the situation of short supply in the aluminum market will continue.