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On Thursday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded sharply, with the highest 15350 yuan / ton and the lowest 14955 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 15280 yuan / ton, up 0.
67% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME aluminum rebounded at a low level, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1989 US dollars / ton, up 0.
63%
per day.
Market focus: (1) The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 174,000 in January, and it is expected to increase by 49,000, compared with a decrease of 78,000
in the previous value.
(2) The US non-manufacturing activity index rose to 58.
7 in January, the highest reading since February 2019, and the index above 50 indicates an expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than
two-thirds of U.
S.
economic activity.
Spot analysis: On February 4, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15330-15370 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15350 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 320 yuan / ton
.
Intraday market shipments gradually increased, receivers continued to lower prices, low-price transactions were acceptable, and transaction activity remained weak
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 86,305 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 1,854 tons; On February 3, LME aluminum stocks were 1425225 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 95134 lots, a daily increase of 1572 lots, short positions are 117378 lots, a daily increase of 1023 lots, a net short position of 22244 lots, a daily decrease of 549 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2103 rebounded
sharply on February 4.
The US dollar rose
on the US ADP payrolls in January significantly better than expected, while the non-manufacturing PMI also recorded a substantial increase, with a strong recovery in employment and the economy.
The recent closure of the import arbitrage window has curbed the inflow
of overseas goods.
However, the inventory of aluminum in Japan's three major Hong Kong recorded a rebound in December, indicating that supply pressure increased; And the high profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum stimulates the release of production capacity, the market supply performance is abundant, coupled with the end of the downstream stock is basically over, demand gradually weakened, the recent inventory has shown a growth trend, aluminum prices lack upward momentum
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position greatly, focusing on the resistance of the 15400 mark, and it is expected to fluctuate
in the short-term range.
