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LME aluminum fell on Thursday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1846 / ton, down 0.
22 or 0.
08%
on the day.
The main 1908 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and fell, with the highest 14015 yuan / ton and the lowest 13790 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price was 13805 yuan / ton, down 0.
07% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 151,300 lots, an increase of 18,952 lots per day, and the position was 205,600 lots, a daily decrease of 11,798 lots
.
The basis was expanded to -5 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai aluminum in 1908-1909 remained at -30 yuan / ton
.
Market focus, overnight Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish comments, the market believes that this month's rate cut has been confirmed, and increased expectations
of a 50 basis point rate cut this month.
At the end of June 2019, China's imported bauxite inventory was about 33.
2 million tons, an increase of about 1.
1% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of about 1.
2%.
According to statistics, the number of days for the dematerialization of imported bauxite stocks at the end of June was 127 days, shortened by 5 days
from the previous month.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, vehicle production and sales in June reached 1.
895 million units and 2.
056 million units, respectively, up 2.
5% m/m and 7.
5% m/m, and down 17.
3% y/y and 9.
6%
y/y.
Spot analysis, on July 11, spot A00 aluminum quotation 13780-13820 yuan / ton, the average price of 13800 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
Due to the recovery of the macro atmosphere overnight, the price of aluminum rose sharply, and the premium did not change significantly, the spot price rose significantly from the previous day, the high price of the holder shipment is active, some hedging enterprises are also active, the middleman is actively trading, plus a large market received more than 6,000 tons, the market transaction is acceptable
.
However, the downstream fear of heights is obvious, and today's receipt is general, mainly based on on-demand procurement
.
Warehouse receipt inventory, the total of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Thursday was 155741 tons, a daily decrease of 300 tons; On July 10, LME aluminum stocks were 941,750 tons, a daily decrease of 6,900 tons, and a decline of 44 consecutive days
.
The main position, the top 20 long positions of the main 1908 contract of Shanghai aluminum were 76240 lots, minus 6328 lots per day, 75172 short positions, 2795 lots per day, net long positions were 1068 lots, daily minus 3533 lots, long and short were reduced, and net long decreased
.
Market research and judgment, on July 11, the main 1908 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and fell
.
Overnight, the Federal Reserve issued comments, the dollar fell, boosting aluminum prices, fundamentally, June automobile production and sales increased and fell, showing that downstream demand is still weak, but moderated, forming some pressure
on aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, under the high price, the holders are actively shipping, some hedging enterprises are also active, the middlemen are actively trading, and the market transaction is acceptable, but the downstream fear of heights is obvious, the receiving is general, and on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the main 1908 contract of Shanghai aluminum focuses on the pressure above the 13950 position, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.
