Shanghai aluminum high opening oscillation before the holiday bargain stocking willingness is higher

Market Focus: (1) The EU said it would not abandon trade talks with Johnson's policies even if Britain did not reverse its plans against international law, but reiterated its threat
of legal action.
(2) As of September 28, the national electrolytic aluminum new production capacity was 335,000 tons, the production capacity was 250,000 tons, and the production was unexpectedly reduced by 20,000 tons
.

Spot analysis: On September 29, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14710-14750 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14730 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 180 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders dumped goods before the holiday to realize cash, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods was general, and the downstream fear of heights was cautious
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 89,837 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 6,668 tons, a continuous decline of 10 days; On September 28, LME aluminum stocks were 1473025 tons, a daily decrease of 4,150 tons, a continuous decline of 28 days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2011 contract were 66908 lots, minus 3693 lots per day, 74921 short positions, 4041 lots per day, 8013 net short positions, 348 lots per day, long and short positions were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On September 29, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2011 opened high.

Negotiations on the agreement between the UK and the EU are expected to make a breakthrough, as the US dollar index retreats due to concessions from the EU and the strengthening of the euro; At the same time, the market demand performance is acceptable, the market is willing to stock up before the holiday, and the current inventory in both cities is showing a downward trend and the decline is expanding, supporting the low recovery of aluminum prices
.
However, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China is gradually released, and the high profit also stimulates the release of idle capacity; In addition, the opening of the import profit window stimulates the continuous inflow of overseas goods and restricts the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2011 contract of Shanghai aluminum is cautious in reducing positions and facing the pressure of long profit-taking, and short-term shock adjustment
is expected.