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Trade Service
On Thursday morning, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened at 12120 yuan / ton, the opening quickly fell to below the daily average after the long and short around the daily average to compete, and then the bears gradually exerted, short-term long positions closed and fled, Shanghai aluminum continued to probe the low to touch 12030 yuan / ton, the end of the session part of the short profit, aluminum price repair part of the decline closed at 12065 yuan / ton, it seems that Shanghai aluminum is in the long and short game stage, bears slightly dominant, is expected to maintain a short-term shock situation, 12000 yuan / ton integer mark long and short tug-of-war intensified
。
In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1641 US dollars / ton in the morning, and the Asian market followed the rapid discharge of domestic Shanghai aluminum at the beginning of the Asian market, and then Lun aluminum fluctuated around the daily moving average range, entering the European trading session, Lun aluminum rose to touch the high of 1644 US dollars / ton was blocked, and Lun aluminum fluctuated
around the 20-day moving average range.
On the macro front, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.
25%, in line with expectations
.
This is the first time the Bank of England has cut interest rates
since 2009.
US durable goods orders for June ended at -3.
9% month-on-month, -4% expected, and -4%
preliminary.
Factory orders were -1.
5% m/m vs -1.
9% expected and -1.
2%
prior.
U.
S
.
industrial data was slightly better than expected, but still in downside territory.
Domestically, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 30 typical cities monitored by the E-House Research Institute in July was 20.
95 million square meters, a decrease of 4.
1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 14.
1%.
In the past three months
, market trading has shown a monthly decline.
From the month-on-month decline, Fuzhou, Shijiazhuang, Suzhou and other cities fell by 28.
2%, 27.
4% and 21.
2%
respectively.
In terms of the market, Shanghai holders have slightly improved their shipments, Wuxi aluminum ingot inventories have decreased significantly, Wuxi holders control shipments, raise prices, the spot price in the later stage of the transaction is slightly increased by 10 yuan / ton, Hangzhou holders have stable shipments, Shanghai supply and demand are still tight, middlemen and downstream low-price acceptance willingness is more positive than yesterday, Wuxi middlemen and downstream willingness to receive goods remains stable
.
Inventories are expected to decline slightly this week, with high spot premiums supported, and changes in Wuxi inventories are expected to narrow the price
difference between Shanghai and Wuxi.
In the late afternoon, aluminum first fell and then rose, the market was relatively cold, and Shanghai traded a small amount of 12490-12500 yuan / ton
in the downward stage of aluminum in the future.
To sum up, Shanghai aluminum has been fluctuating up and down the 60-day moving average for several days
.
Downstream demand is weak, and aluminum prices are difficult to rise, but inventories remain low and there are certain expectations of consumption in the October peak season, which means that aluminum prices are difficult to fall
sharply.
Investors are still advised to wait and see
in the short term.
